CappersPicks – College Basketball Weekend Preview
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Saturday December 19, 12:00 PM
Michigan vs. Kansas
@Kansas
Last game for Michigan: 75-64 victory vs Detroit (ATS loss -12)
Last Game for Kansas: 90-65 victory vs LaSalle (ATS win -22)
Matchup history: No matchup history
Line: Kansas -19
Prior to the season starting this was seen as a matchup of two ranked teams. A chance for Michigan to prove it deserved the preseason hype and a chance for Kansas to cement its elite status before entering conference play. Kansas has kept up their end of the bargain but Michigan has stumbled with 4 losses in its first 9 games. They can certainly make a splash by winning at Kansas but it doesn’t seem very likely. Both teams are well rested neither has played in a week.
Wolverine guard Manny Harris has been one of the best players in the country in the early going. He is currently leading the club in points, rebounds and assists, pretty impressive for a 6’5″ gunner. He is getting support from DeShawn Sims as expected but the rest of the roster is not contributing much and that is the problem. Coach Beilein is a top tactician but it is hard to win when you are playing 2 on 5 on offense. It will be especially tough when you are playing against the top team in the country. A team blessed with both skill and depth at every position.
Kansas is 9-0 with only one close contest, a 2 point victory which was much closer than anybody expected. Despite the presence of All-Americans Cole Aldrich and Sherron Collins it has been freshman Xavier Henry leading the way – he is averaging 18 points a while his more celebrated teammates are barely in double figures. With Kansas not playing many close games everyone’s minutes are below expectations so look for the AA’s to catchup beginning with this game. The Jayhawks have plenty of depth to bother Harris and Sims. Sure they will get their numbers the duo are unlikely to be able to beat a Kansas team which is showing no weakness in the early going and is getting back its best outside shooter from last year, Brady Morningstar, who is coming off of suspension.
Score Prediction: Michigan – 68 vs. Kansas – 83
Pick: Kansas may stumble at some point but it will not be against Michigan. Feel comfortable taking the top team as it flexes its muscles in this one. The spread is a little higher than expected but Kansas is still a good play.
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Mid-Major Rager
Saturday December 19, 2:00 PM
Xavier vs. Butler
@Butler
Last Game for Xavier: 83-79 victory over Cincinatti (OT) (ATS win -3.5)
Last Game for Butler: 74-66 victory over Ohio State (ATS win -5)
Line: Butler -6
Matchup history: 74-65 victory by Butler in 08 (ATS win)
Both teams enter the game trying to build their post-season resumes just in case they do not win their respective conferences. Butler probably doesn’t need to do so but Xavier is in tough. The A-10 may be a one bid league this year and most pundits are looking at Dayton as the frontrunner. Still this should be a good, hard fought game and their is some nice talent on both sides…just don’t look for anything flashy even with Jordan Crawford on the court.
Xavier is pretty good. They enter the weekend at only 6-3 but they have no bad losses but no signature wins either. They only have 4 games left before A-10 play begins and each should be a good tuneup for what is usually a rough and tumble regular season in a conference without a dominant team. In the early going they are getting pretty good play from transfer Jordan Crawford. He of dunking over LeBron fame is leading the team with over 18ppg. He has proven that he can shoot his team both in and out of a game though. He teams with leading assist man Terrell Holloway to form a very good backcourt. Meanwhile Jason Love provides inside muscle. At 6’9″ and 265 he is averaging nearly a double-double with 9.9 and 11 – both career highs, He is intimidating for sure
How do you evaluate Butler in the early going? Kudos for scheduling some tough games but are they good, over-hyped or under-appreciated. It is shard to tell. One thing that is easy to spot is the under-performance of Matt Howard. He is averaging less points then when he was a frosh and is fouling out of too many games. It is understandable when you are playing against a beast like Greg Monroe but he needs to tighten up his game. The fouls get the team totally out of sync as he is their only inside presence. Gordon Hayward and Shelvin Mack have picked up their games but it won’t be enough if Howard continues to struggle. However, this trio should be enough to hold off Xavier in a tight contest.
Score Prediction: Butler – 69 vs. Xavier – 63
Pick: Butler builds off their OSU win and keeps momentum going. I would leave this one alone but it should be entertaining.
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Can’t Ignore
Saturday December 19, 2:00PM
North Carolina vs. Texas
@Dallas (Texas Stadium)
Last game for UNC: 103-64 victory over Presbyterian (NL)
Last game for Texas: 104-42 victory over Texas-Pan American (NL)
Line: Texas -7
Matchup History: Texas 78, UNC 75 (in 04′ NCAA Tourney)
A couple of early season losses has taken some of the shine off of UNC but this is still a match between likely Final Four combatants. If anything the Heels are battle tested while the Longhorns have yet to be challenged winning every game by at least 16 points. This game features a nice selection of next level talent and will be a bit of a contrast in styles. Although UNC loves to run the Longhorns can challenge any team in the nation to a track meet with their stockpile of wing and backcourt talent. Neither team is going to push the other around in this heavyweight battle. I can’t wait to see it unfold.
Yes North Carolina has two losses but they are to undefeated top teams Syracuse and Kentucky. They also handled Michigan State like it was April 2009 and beat Ohio State when they still had Evan Turner healthy. In short, they are still very, very good and could conceivably not lose another game this year. For that to happen they need better guard play. Larry Drew II has been adequate but does not dictate the pace the way Lawson and Felton did previously. He has the raw speed but is not feared. Also, they need Ed Davis to step up and be the kind of player some think could be the number 1 pick in the draft, his numbers are solid but he seldom has looked like the best player on the floor.
Texas has been impressive but unchallenged in non-conference play. Damion James is doing his best Matrix (Shawn Marion) impression and they are getting great contributions from two freshmen, Avery Bradley and Jordan Hamilton. They have found some consistency at the point with Balbay and I believe Jai Lucas will make his debut on Saturday adding to their wealth of riches in the backcourt. Despite the production they get they are not all that big upfront. Dexter Pittman is still a mountain but the production of the other bigs is not very good which could be exposed against North Carolina. The might need Matt Hill to step up even if it is only for one game.
Score Prediction: Texas – 77 vs. North Carolina – 71
Pick: Not sure what Jerry Jones’ new monstrosity is like for hoops but I think it has to favour Texas even though it is technically a neutral site. I think Texas will be able to give UNC a dose of their own medicine so unless UNC really lights it up shooting from the outside they are going to be in tough. With two really good teams you can certainly ignore the spread and just pick the ML winnner – Texas.
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