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Cal Poly Mustangs vs. Texas Southern Tigers Gambling & NCAA Handicapping Prediction

2014 NCAA Tournament – Play In Game Pick

Yesterday I wrote that Mount St. Mary’s was the least deserving team in the tournament but I was probably wrong because that title belongs to Cal Poly. Even in winning the Big West they finished with only a 13-19 record and they were well under .500 in their league. [ad-4468020]

Cal Poly Mustangs (13-19) vs. Texas Southern Tigers (19-14)
Wednesday March 19
University of Dayton Arena – Dayton, OH
6:40PM
Moneyline: Cal Poly -165, Texas Southern +145
Spread: Cal Poly -3.5
Total: 130
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Cal Poly

Nevertheless here they are and as you can see by the odds Vegas thinks they are going to add another win to their profile…

…at least they had to beat the top two teams in the league to get to this point. The Mustangs are led by forward Chris Eversley, who took a step back as a senior seeing his scoring and efficiency drop. Key in this one will be the play of PG Jamal Johnson. He is a terrible shooter but is good at protecting the ball.

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If he can make a few shots to stay on the floor than he can make sure his teammates get the rock in the right spots.

It says a lot that oddsmakers are making CP the favourite even though they are travelling across country to play TSU team that on paper seems to be the better of the two.

They will look to control the pace but I worry that they will not have a good enough counter for the Tigers best player – Aaric Murray.
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Texas Southern

The Tigers have one of the longest winning streaks coming into the tournament. They have won 9 in a row including three in the SWAC Tournament to take it. They did get a little bit of an easier road with Prairie View knocking off top seed Southern.

This is their first time making it to the Big Dance since 2003 but their coach Mike Davis has been there before with Indiana and UAB.

TSU has a force in the middle in former La Salle and West Virginia player Aaric Murray. Murray is having his best season yet showing some of the promise he exhibited at La Salle, which should come as no surprise given the drop in competition.

For this game his presence might be enough but we will have to see how far he can take the Tigers. Some of his biggest games were against non-conference opponents…but they were in losses.

I like the Tigers chances of winning this one outright so grab them at the current +3. I have to admit I am not super familiar with either of these teams so I might be overly influenced by knowing something about Murray and Davis.

Sometimes you got to go with the name you know.

Spread prediction: Texas Southern +3
Total prediction: Over
Score prediction: Texas Southern 71 – Cal Poly 67

By The Wiesguy

The Wiesguy is a newcomer to the handicapping scene. Hailing from Toronto, Canada he is always sweet on the underdogs and you can often find his thoughts, musings and picks at moneydogs.blogspot.com.