St. Mary’s vs. Middle Tennessee State NCAA Tourney Spread/Handicapping
The Saint Mary’s Gaels and the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders are set to face off Tuesday night in the play-in game that will decide the No. 11 seed of the Midwest Region. The winner will go on to play the No. 6 Memphis Tigers in Round 2 of the NCAA Tournament.
Saint Mary’s Gaels (27-6, 14-2 WCC) vs. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (28-5, 19-1 Sun Belt)
Tuesday, March 19, 2013
9:10 PM ET
Dayton, OH
Spread: Saint Mary’s -3 at Bovada
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Saint Mary’s
When you look at the schedule for the Saint Mary’s Gaels, one thing that you can’t help but notice is that they played the No. 1 seed Gonzaga Bulldogs three times. They lost all three times, but the important part is that they’re the only team they’ve lost to since Dec. 23.
This team won the winnable games, and it even managed to take down the Creighton Bluejays—a No. 8 seed in the Tournament—on Feb. 23.
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The player to watch for the Gaels is senior Matthew Dellavedova. The guard is leading the team in points per game with 15.8, assists with 6.4 and steals with 1.2. He’s only shooting 40.6 percent on the season, but he’s also making 37.4 percent of his three-point attempts.
The Gaels as a unit score 75.5 points per contest, which is good enough for 23rd in the country, and they shoot 47.4 percent from the field, which is good enough for 22nd. They’re going up against a tough defense on Tuesday, so they’re going to need solid play out of Dellavedova. He is used to playing against physical players, as he faced Team USA in last summer’s Olympics, and if he can run the offense without interruption, it’s going to be a huge step in the right direction. [ad-6571516]
Middle Tennessee
The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders are in the middle of their best season in school history. This is the first time they’ve earned a tournament bid in 24 years, and they recorded the second-most road wins on the season with 11.
The other thing to note about the Blue Raiders is that they haven’t lost two games in a row all season. They’re currently coming off a shocking 61-57 loss to the Florida International Golden Panthers, which means they’ll need this win against Saint Mary’s to keep that streak alive.
Middle Tennessee State averaged 71.2 points per game, and while that number was only good enough to earn them 85th in the country, that average dropped to just 57.6 in their five losses.
The Blue Raiders need to do two things to take down The Gaels. First, they have to contain Dellavedova. If they shut down the senior guard, they take away the player who sets up himself and his teammates all game long. The other thing is make their outside shots. Guard Raymond Cintron has to be accurate from deep range, which is something he’s been known for all season.
This game is going to be close, and chances are, whoever wins will give No. 6 Memphis a run for its money. The three-point spread in Saint Mary’s favor should prove to be a bit too high, as a physical showing against Dellavedova will limit what the team can do on offense.
Score Prediction: Middle Tennessee State 65 – Saint Mary’s 63
