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MSU vs. Louisville Free Pick (Mar. 29)

Michigan St. Spartans (29-6) vs. Louisville Cardinals (31-5)

2009 NCAA Tournament Elite 8 Action
Sunday March 29, 2:20 PM ET
Indianapolis, IN Lucas Oil Stadium – Midwest Region

Michigan State has won ATS in the last 5 non-conference games but is just 2-5 vs. Big East opponents. The under is 10-4 in the last 14 and 22-6 as an underdog between .5 and 6.5. Michigan State was behind most of the game against KU but pulled out the win. Kansas went away from Cole Aldrich in the middle.Louisville coach Rick Pitino wouldn’t go away from what was working.

MSU guards Walton and Lucas will have trouble against the ferocious pressure Louisville puts on opponents. The Spartans head coach Tom Izzo is a very fine coach but his team will obviously be outmatched talent wise in this game.

Louisville destroyed Arizona in the Sweet 16. They are just now hitting their stride and will advance to the Final Four. They are 12-4 ATS in the last 16 following an ATS win. This means they are a streaky team and the streak is just beginning. They are also 15-7 in the last 22 as favorites. The under is 7-3-1 on neutral courts as the favorite and 9-4 as a favorite overall. Earl Clark and Samardo Samuels will run in transition. MSU defenders, mainly Goran Suton, will not be able to keep up with Louisville’s athleticism.

Bottom line is the talent disparity between Louisville and Michigan State. Pitino has the thoroughbreds and Izzo has Clydesdale’s. I will side with Pitino and look forward to the matchup in the Final Four with either UConn or Missouri.

Last Game Out:

Last game for Michigan State (29-6): Win 67-62 vs. Kansas
Last game for Louisville (31-5): Win 103-64 vs. Arizona

Betting Lines:

Louisville -6.5
Over/Under 138

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Chris Hahn is a regular contributor to the Cappers Picks Blog. He’s a Wichita State Shockers season tix holder! But don’t hold that against him ok? He flat out loves his college HOOPS! Got a comment? In the mood to run a little smack? Chris wants to hear from you, so comment below!

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