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NCAAB Handicapping: UNLV vs. Louisville (Dec. 31)

NCAA Basketball Sports Betting UNLV @ Louisville

One of the big positives about Louisville is its ability to get the ball around the floor. The Cardinals are averaging 18.6 assists per game, which currently ranks them eighth in the country among “board teams.” Naturally when you do that you’re going to get yourself in position for a high percentage of good shots, right? Well, almost.  

BetUS Sportsbook NCAA Basketball Odds: LOUISVILLE +13

Here are some of the NCAA basketball betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* UNLV has won its last six games SU
* UNLV has played four of its last six games OVER the total
* UNLV has won four of its last six road games SU
* UNLV has played four of its last five road games UNDER the total
* LOU has covered 17 of its last 25 games
* LOU has covered one of its last five games
* LOU has won six of its last seven games SU
* LOU has played four of its last six games OVER the total
* LOU has covered one of its last five home games
* LOU has won 10 of its last 11 home games SU
* LOU has played 17 of its last 24 home games UNDER the total

The Cardinals are hitting only 44.4% of their attempts, which is only about a middle-of-the-pack figure.

There has also been an alarming level of underachievement in some of these games. For example, the 68-54 drubbing by Western Kentucky was an abomination. Then there was the game with Ole Missreeling from the arrest of their coach, Andy Kennedy, where the Cards struggled mightily with a team it should have blown off the court. Immediately after that Louisville lost to Minnesota, which is no further than a work in progress under Tubby Smith. A 20-point win over UAB brought only a limited amount of redemption, since the Blazers are going to be vulnerable for much of the season with only six scholarship players.

That, by the way, was Louisville’s only cover in its last five games. We know that Rick Pitino’s team has an abundance of talent, with versatile forwards like Terrence Williams (11.9 ppg) and Earl Clark (13.4 ppg) and freshman center Samardo Samuels (the leading scorer at 15.2 ppg). It appears that Jerry Smith, who can shoot from the outside but isn’t a pure point guard, will be performing that very function against UNLV because Pitino is simply dissatisfied with Edgar Sosa and does not have him in the immediate plans.

The absence of a pure point might make things more difficult against a UNLV team that is cat-quick and has been incredibly impressive at times, as they were ten days ago against Arizona, a dominant 79-64 win. Wink Adams isn’t a real good outside shooter (25% threes, for example) but he can slash to the hoop and creates turnovers. Rene Rougeau teams with Adams in the backcourt, and the 6’6″ senior averages 2.4 blocks and 1.7 steals. This team may be lacking in size, but you won’t beat the Rebels in the tenacity department.

Let’s grab the points with UNLV, the 13-point underdog in the BetUS NCAA college basketball betting odds.

Our PLAY: UNLV +13 ***


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