Commodores vs Wildcats NCAAB Handicapping Prediction
Kentucky (27-1) is heading for a #1 seed in the Big Dance, but snagging a top seed will not be easy, as they host a hot Vanderbilt (20-8) team that has won 3 straight as well as facing 11th ranked Florida on the road in their season finale.
Venue/ Stadium: Rupp Arena, Lexington, KY
Time/Date: 12 PM EST Saturday, February 25, 2012
NCAA Odds From: Bovada
Moneyline: OFF
Spread (ATS): OFF
Over/Under: OFF
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. No. 1 Kentucky Wildcats Preview
Vandy is in 3rd place in the SEC and have 20 wins so they are safe to make the Big Dance, but can greatly improve their seed if they can pull off the big away upset against Kentucky.
In their last games Kentucky beat Mississippi State 73-64 and Vanderbilt beat South Carolina 59-48.
This season Vanderbilt is 12-12 ATS with an O/U record of 10-14 and UK is 10-16-1 ATS with an O/U record of 9-16-2.
Earlier this month at Vandy the Commodores lost to the Wildcats 69-63 and on the season they are only 1-5 facing ranked teams.
Vandy has a great G/F duo in G John Jenkins (20.1) and F Jeffery Taylor (17.3 ppg) and each of these guys has been hot and can drain the 3 with the best of them. Each is shooting over 46% from beyond the 3-point arc and will have to hit some long bombs in this game.
UK also features a solid G/F duo in leading scorer and rebounder Anthony Davis (13.8 ppg 9.8 rpg) and Doron Lamb (13.7 ppg). However, the Wildcats have more scoring options than these guys with the nation’s 22nd ranked scoring team.
Vandy only ranks 142nd in rebounds per game while UK ranks 15th and it is vital that 6’8″ Lance Goulbourne (8.8 ppg 7 rpg), 6’7″ Taylor, and 6’11” C Festus Ezeli (10.1 ppg 5.3 rpg) hit the boards hard for the Commodores and really work on keeping Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (12.2 ppg 7.8 rpg) out of the paint and dominating the glass. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
In the match up a couple weeks again between these SEC rivals the Commodores shot the long ball well, but overall they only shot 36.5% from the field. They are a great team shooting the rock from deep, but also have to get some easy buckets in the lane as well.
Vandy has to get back on the break and their guards must be careful with the rock facing a very athletic UK team that is averaging almost 6 steals per game.
In some betting trends for this SEC match up Vanderbilt is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, 19-7-2 ATS in their last 28 road games, and they have an Over record of 5-2 in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above 60%.
Kentucky is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall, 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 home games, and they have an Under record of 5-2-1 in their last 8 games.
Jason’s Pick: The Wildcats do not have a good home ATS record, as they are always such big favorites. I think Vandy will give them a game and while I do not think they will win they will cover the spread.
