Round 2 – Boilermakers vs Gaels CBB Handicapping Prediction
Purdue ended the season well winning 6 of their last 8 games, but they lost to Ohio State in the Big 10 semis.
Purdue(10) vs St. Mary’s(7)
Venue/ Stadium: CenturyLink Center Omaha, Omaha, NE
Time/Date: 7:27 PM EST Friday, March 16, 2012
NCAA Odds From: Bovada
Moneyline: Purdue +115 / St. Mary’s -135
Spread (ATS): St. Mary’s -2
Over/Under: 140
Purdue Boilermakers vs. St. Mary’s Gaels Preview
They will face a hot St. Mary’s team that hit a rough patch before caching fire and winning the West Coast Conference tournament. NCAAB lines have St. Mary’s as slight 2-point favorites with a total of 140.
In their last games St. Mary’s beat rival Gonzaga 78-74 in OT in the WCC finals while Purdue lost to Ohio State 88-71 in the Big 10 quarterfinals.
This season Purdue is 16-14 ATS with an O/U record of 19-11 and St. Mary’s is 14-13 ATS with an O/U record of 13-13.
This is the first eve r match up between these 2 teams and St. Mary’s has not faced a team from the Big 10 since the mid 1970’s.
St. Mary’s played a much weaker schedule this season and they lost both their games facing ranked teams. However, they have a higher scoring team than Purdue and a much better rebounding team.
St. Mary’s is led by the solid G/F duo of G Matthew Dellavedova (15.6 ppg) and F Rob Jones (14.8 ppg 10.7 rpg). Dellavedova is shooting over 36% from beyond the 3-point arc and in his last 5 games is averaging 16.4 ppg. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Jones is a solid guy on the glass, but he is only 6’6″ and the key match up in this game is he and Purdue leading scorer and rebounder Robbie Hummel (16.3 ppg 7.1 rpg). Hummel is the feel good story of this tournament, as the Boilermakers star has missed the last 2 Big Dances with knee injuries. The Gaels 2nd leading rebounder is 6’4″ G Stephen Holt and Hummel is the key in this game, as if he can dominate the paint the Boilermakers will be in good shape.
Hummel will have to score and hit the boards and 5’9″ speedy G Lewis Jackson (10.3 ppg) must have a good game. These 2 are the leading scorers for Purdue, but they have 6 guys overall that are averaging at least 8 ppg.
In some betting trends for this Midwest Region 2nd round game Purdue is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games as an underdog, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss, and they have an Over record of 4-0 in their last 4 games as an underdog.
St. Mary’s is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win, and they have an Under record of 5-2 in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above 60%.
Jason’s Pick: I have to go with Purdue in this game, as Hummel will have a good game and lead the Boilermakers to win.
