Bears vs Longhorns NCAAB Handicapping Prediction
Texas (17-10) is 0-6 facing ranked opponents this season, but they have a good chance to change that facing a struggling Baylor (22-5) team that has lost 3 of their last 4 games.
Venue/ Stadium: Frank Erwin Special Events Center, Austin, TX
Time/Date: 9 PM EST Monday, February 20, 2012
NCAA Odds From: Bovada
Moneyline: Texas -140 / Baylor +120
Spread (ATS): Texas -2.5
Over/Under: 137.5
No 10 Baylor Bears vs. Texas Longhorns Preview
NCAAB lines have Texas as a slight 2-point favorite with a total of 137.5.
In their last games Baylor lost to Kansas State 57-56 and Texas lost to Oklahoma State 90-78.
This season Texas is 8-13-1 ATS with an O/U record of 11-11 and Baylor is 8-12 ATS with an O/U record of 10-10.
Texas is 14-2 at home this season and in their earlier match up with the Bears at Baylor they lost 76-71 at the end of last month.
The Bears have had major issues turning over the ball this season and they committed 18 turnovers in their last loss to Kansas State. They need to be more careful with the rock and get it down low to leading scorer Perry Jones III (13.5 ppg 7.5 rpg). He, F Quincy Miller(12.4 ppg 5.2 rpg) and F Quincy Acy (12.2 ppg 6.9 rpg) give the Bears a formidable frontcourt. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
J’Covan Brown (19.7 ppg) leads the Big 12 in scoring, but he has struggled to shoot the pill at home this season. While the Bears have the advantage in the frontcourt the Longhorns have the better backcourt with Brown and Sheldon McClellan (11.3 ppg).
Even though the Bears have the advantage down low the Longhorns are a slightly better team on the glass and they have size down low with 6’10” F/C Clint Chapman (7.1 ppg 5.4 rpg) and F Jonathan Holmes (7.6 ppg 5 rpg).
In the game against Baylor last month Texas was cold shooting the rock and they were dominated on the boards and they will have to reverse both of those things if they are going to beat their first ranked opponent tonight.
Texas is at 17 wins, but they may need to beat a ranked team or 2 to get off the Big Dance bubble.
In some betting trends for this Big 10 game Baylor is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games, and they have an Under record of 5-1 in their last 6 games.
Texas is 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 home games, 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record, and they have an Over record of 4-1 in their last 5 games.
Jason’s Pick: Texas is a good team, but I think they will not be able to keep up with the frontcourt of Baylor, as the Bears will cover the 2.5-point spread tonight in the Lone Star State.
