Sooners vs Aztecs NCAA Tourney Spread/Handicapping
The No. 10 Oklahoma Sooners and the No. 7 San Diego State Aztecs will face off Friday night in a second round matchup in the South Region. The winner will move on to face the winner between No. 2 Georgetown and No. 15 Florida Gulf Coast.
No. 10 (20-11, 11-7 Big 12) vs. No. 7 San Diego St. (22-10, 9-7 MWC)
Friday, March 22, 2013
9:20 PM ET
Philadelphia, PA
Spread: San Diego State -2.5 at SBO
ML: N/A
O/U: 133.5
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Oklahoma Sooners
If the Oklahoma Sooners do anything well, it’s play smart basketball. This group knows how to create good looks, they don’t force shots and that kind of discipline won’t go unnoticed in the NCAA Tournament. One player to watch is going to be Romero Osby. The forward averaged 22 points over the final seven games, and as a result, the team exceeded the 80-point mark in its last five contests.
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As hard as this team works, it has some glaring deficiencies. Steven Pledger is a good three-point shooter, but he’s one of the few reliable ones on the team. Defenses rarely have problems when it comes to honing in on one player, and as a result, his efficiency isn’t always what you’d expect it to be.
Rebounding is also a concern. Although their numbers aren’t the worst in the country by a long shot (36.7 boards per game), that’s more a testament to their competition. The Big 12 wasn’t a great rebounding conference this season, and Oklahoma struggled to stand out against middle-of-the-road competition in that category.
San Diego State Aztecs
The San Diego State Aztecs will have the best player on the court when this game tips off. Jamaal Franklin, 6’5”, 205 pounds, is averaging 16.7 points, 9.5 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1.5 steals and .8 blocks per game. All of those categories are team highs, as he’s the clear go-to presence on both sides of the floor. [ad-6571516]
The nice part for San Diego State is that Franklin is surrounded by scoring guards. He is coming off his worst scoring performance of the season (eight points on 3-of-12 shooting against No. 15 New Mexico), so he has weapons he can defer to if need be.
Protecting the rim is going to be huge for the Aztecs. If they allow Romero Osby to get comfortable and establish himself early, it’s going to be a long night. This game is going to be all about which No. 1 option can have a better showing, so getting Franklin involved in more ways than one is the best way to make that happen.
This has the potential to be one of the most highly debated 7-10 matchups in the Tournament. While Oklahoma’s inside presence and superior athleticism up front could swing it their way, it’s tough to believe that Franklin is going to come out and have another bad performance.
Look for Franklin to be the man, and look for San Diego State to escape with a narrow victory.
Prediction: Aztecs 69 – Sooners 66
