Baylor Bears vs Texas Longhorns | Free Pick (February 12)
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Baylor 16-7 (5-11) vs Texas 21-3 (15-4)
Friday February 12 – 4:00PM
Recent history: Baylor dominated Texas in last year’s Big 12 tournament 86-67.
Baylor vs. Texas State Odds Texas -11.5
Total: 130.5
Click here to view LIVE ATS Stats for this matchup —>
Baylor was so good last year but I guess losing your best big and starting PG were more damaging than I and others thought based on preseason expectations. This team has dramatically underperformed those expectations (see ATS record) while LaceDarius Dunn has increased his scoring and frosh forward Perry Jones has been close to as good as advertised. Odds are this team makes it in to the tournament but they can cement that opinion with a win over the hottest team in the land right now – Texas. That is a pretty tall order for the Bears but if Dunn outduels Jordan Hamilton this team has a real shot. In last year’s blowout in the Big 12 tourney Dunn scored 19 while the afore referenced (PG) Tweety Carter and (PF) Epke Udoh scored 20 and 25 respectively. Dunn will need some help but this team is capable of playing at that kind of high level. 
Texas is the hottest thing going right now as far as I am concerned. Sure they may have a couple of losses but their recent winning streak is very impressive with wins against the best the Big 12 has to offer including Texas A&M twice and of course, ending Kansas’ homecourt winning streak. Amazingly, they are having all of this success while just shredding the oddsmakers (see ATS record above). It seems that no matter how good they look the oddsmakers think it won’t or can’t last. If you have been betting Texas and only Texas you would be very happy right now. For this game you have to like their chances. Texas is a fairly complete team and their defense has been superb giving up under 60ppg. Their depth in the backcourt just wears out opposing guards and they have enough scorers to burn you in a variety of ways. They also might want to exact some revenge on Baylor who many expected to be the juggernaut the Longhorns have become.
Betting Trends:
Bears are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Longhorns are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Longhorns are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Longhorns are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
Free Bears vs Longhorns CBB Pick
Even though they struggle sometimes I still really like this Baylor team. LaceDarius Dunn is going to be hounded throughout the game but will make enough big shot to keep the Bears in it until the end. Texas’ depth will eventually win out.
Score prediction: Texas 74 – Baylor 70
