New Mexico State Aggies vs Michigan State Spartans – Round 1 – Mid West Region College Hoops Gambling
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If you’ve ever bet on March Madness, you’re aware of the dreaded “five versus 12” matchup. Historically, almost a third of No. 12 seeds have upset No. 5 sides. We thus have to take New Mexico State seriously on Friday – even against a perennial contender like Michigan State.
New Mexico St. vs Michigan St. – Friday, March 19, 7:20 p.m. ET
New Mexico St. +13.5
Michigan St. -13.5
Total: 148
As I heard Dick Vitale say on Saturday – “I’ll take talent over chemistry any time.” If you subscribe to that philosophy, you’re probably holding out hope that Michigan State can make a run in the tournament. The Spartans haven’t been the most cohesive group this year but they have plenty of skill.
Kalin Lucas can be an elite guard; he has slashing ability and improved his shooting this season. If he can shake the effects of his lingering ankle injury, he’ll give the Spartans a massive boost. Friday’s loss to Minnesota suggests that could happen; after five straight games with 13 or fewer points, he posted 18 against Minnesota. Raymar Morgan and Durrell Summers are big reasons why Michigan State is so good on the glass. Even without a standout center, the Spartans are rarely outrebounded.
New Mexico State has plenty of talent too. Jahmar Young and Jonathan Gibson are one-two scoring punch that Michigan can’t truly match. And Wendell McKines is a force on the boards, averaging 9.9 rebounds per game.
The Aggies may actually be a more athletic team than Michigan State. But, arguably, they don’t always get the most out of their ability. Despite their talent, they barely crack the top 100 in rebounds per game. Their defense was also horrific; they allow a whopping 77.8 points per game – 336th in the nation. Sometimes, they lack the effort to match their talent.
From a straight-up betting (or bracket contest) perspective, I think the more mature, better-coached Michigan State has the edge. But what about covering that meaty, 13-point spread? 
Michigan State is just 12-19 against the spread this season and lacks the major scoring touch to really pull away from opponents.
The Aggies also have enough offensive ability to stay close, even if they are giving up points.
I like New Mexico State to keep this game within 13 points.
After all, it beat three straight spreads on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.
Betting Trends:
Spartans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games
Spartans are 17-4-1 ATS in their last 22 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite
Spartans are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games following a SU loss
Spartans are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite
Aggies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games
Aggies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games as an underdog
Aggies are 6-1-2 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600
Aggies are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win
Aggies vs. Spartans Free Tournament Pick: Against the spread: New Mexico State +13
Straight up: Michigan State
2010 Bracketology (Click Links Below To View Each March Madness Bracket)
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