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Kentucky vs. UConn Free Pick – Odds & National Final Over/Under Total Predictions

UK vs UConn National Final Handicapping

This year’s NCAA tournament has produced the most unlikely final since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985, and with it an interesting final is set to played by a pair of teams, neither of which are a top three seed or better and missed the tournament the year before. [ad-4468020]

2014 NCAA Tournament Free Picks
Final 4
Date/Time: 8:49 p.m. EST, Monday, April 7, 2014
Venue: : AT&T Stadium – Arlington, Texas
Broadcast: TBS
Spread: -2.5 Kentucky
Over/Under: 135

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That’s right, since 1985, at least a No. 1, 2 or 3 seed has played in every single final, but not this year as No. 8 Kentucky and No. 7 Connecticut are ready to do battle on Monday in Arlington, to decide this year’s champion.

Funny, coincidence, however, as before this year, the highest combined seeds in a final was in 2011, when then eighth-seed Butler took on you guessed it, a third-seeded Connecticut squad in 2011.

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That year marked the introduction of the “First Four” round and also saw East Region champion Kentucky, a No. 4 seed, get beat by UConn in the Final Four.

Connecticut then went on to win its third national title in the championship game by defeating Butler 53-41.
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Nevertheless, this year, brackets were being busted heading into Saturday’s Final Four, when UConn upset Florida, and Kentucky pretty much shocked the college basketball world with a 74-73 win over a heavily-favored Wisconsin.

Interesting, as Connecticut was ineligible last season because of academic issues, and Kentucky, who was the preseason No. 1 this season, played in the 2014 NIT.

Now the stage is set for a bunch of young Kentucky freshmen to take on a Connecticut team, which already has a few championship rings on its roster.

And while the current odds only shows the Wildcats as a slim -2.5-point favorite, the more curious betting angle is on the total, which ranges with numbers as low as 132.5 to 135.

Up until now, the under has by and large been the way to go in UConn games this tournament season, and the semifinal against Florida proved that, producing a total of just 116 after being set at 127. Before that the Huskies finished with another under against Michigan State following a string of three straight overs.

Kentucky on the other hand, finished nine points over the set total in its Final Four win over the Badgers, following three consecutive over totals against Michigan, Louisville and Wichita State. All games in which the Wildcats scored 75.2 PPG, while allowing 72.5 PPG.

Free Pick: OVER

Since UConn has scored an average of 70.5 and allowed just 62 PPG over that same span, my guess is that this one goes over if the total stays below 135.

By Matt Martz

Matt has returned to CappersPicks.com. The pull was too great. He missed providing his free picks and insider sports gambling analysis to his loyal readers. Please take it easy on him till he gets back into his groove. Cheers!