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2010 Overrated College Hoops Teams

The simplest way to extract money from the marketplace is to fade the most overrated teams. Hype plays a more important role in forming public opinion than we sometimes admit…

Most Overrated CBB Teams

Value-conscious handicappers have been waiting since April for school to start back up. Wait no longer; Day One of the 2010-11 NCAA men’s basketball season is here. The Coaches Vs. Cancer Classic tips off Monday night with the Pittsburgh Panthers hosting the Rhode Island Rams at the Petersen Events Center.

Then the floodgates will open on Friday with 135 games on the Division I schedule. It’s taken us over half the NFL season to get in that many football games; with so much volume on the shelves, it’s difficult not to find bargains when you bet on college hoops.

The simplest way to extract money from the marketplace is to fade the most overrated teams. Hype plays a more important role in forming public opinion than we sometimes admit. That fish we caught gets bigger and bigger each time we tell the story. So does the legend of the Indiana Hoosiers, even though the program itself has seen better days. The gap between perception and performance in recent years has made the Hoosiers easy to fade.

2009-10: 21-15 SU, 16-19 ATS
2008-09: 6-25 SU, 12-13 ATS
2007-08: 25-8 SU, 13-16-1 ATS
2006-07: 21-11 SU, 14-15 ATS
2005-06: 19-12 SU, 11-17 ATS

This is how the last five years have gone at Indiana since guard Bracey Wright turned pro. The Hoosiers have been through three coaches and two athletic directors since then, thanks to the Kelvin Sampson recruiting scandal. Restoring the talent level in Bloomington has been a challenge for Tom Crean, but he’s making positive strides, so we might have to consider flipping the Hoosiers from “fade” to “follow” on the NCAAB odds list before too long.

Fresh talent is also why we can’t put the Duke Blue Devils on this list. The defending national champions are the near-unanimous preseason No. 1 going into the new season, after starting 2009 in relative anonymity at No. 9. Duke will almost certainly not improve on last year’s record of 35-5 SU and 23-14-2 ATS. But the Blue Devils do have a better roster in 2010, most notably with the addition of superfrosh point guard Kyrie Irving. This Duke team deserves its accolades as the most talented in the country.

It would be much different in Durham if coach Mike Krzyzewski had to overhaul his program. Sometimes a young team will enjoy instant success, but that’s not what happened to the North Carolina Tar Heels (20-17 SU, 13-22 ATS) and the Texas Longhorns (24-10 SU, 10-20 ATS) last year. Both teams were ranked ahead of Duke going into the season: Texas at No. 3 and North Carolina at No. 6. Those expectations were unrealistic from the get-go, especially in the case of the Tar Heels. But both teams should recover this year – again, too much talent.

This year’s best “kick them while they’re down” candidate could be the Kansas Jayhawks. They’re No. 7 in the preseason rankings and just two years removed from the national championship. However, coach Bill Self has to replace three important players: Cole Aldrich, Sherron Collins and Xavier Henry. Freshman sensation Josh Selby would be a fantastic addition at point guard, but the NCAA still hasn’t ruled whether he’ll be eligible this season. It’s cutting into his practice time and could easily affect his development curve even if he gets to play at some point this month.

If Selby is ruled eligible, the attention of faders could turn westward to the Gonzaga Bulldogs. They’re coming off another successful season in the West Coast Conference at 27-7 SU and 16-12-2 ATS. They’re also No. 12 in the preseason rankings, but it’s not going to be easy staying in the Top 25. After all, the Bulldogs finished just No. 57 in efficiency last year according to Ken Pomeroy’s Division I rankings.

Coach Mark Few has not added much to that roster for 2010. He also needs to figure out who will be the point guard now that WCC Player of the Year Matt Bouldin is playing in Greece; Bouldin was Gonzaga’s top scorer last season with 15.6 points per game. Another 20-win season might be a gimme in the WCC, but that doesn’t guarantee a profit – just look at last year’s Texas Longhorns. That Cinderella overachiever label doesn’t fit Gonzaga anymore.

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By Cappers Picks

Articles on CappersPicks.com are written by Q (the Head Honcho) at Cappers Picks or by our resident "in house" handicapper Razor Ray Monohan! Enjoy the free picks folks! "Pad that bankroll one day at a time!"