Final 4 Free Pick – SATURDAY, APRIL 3, 2010 NATIONAL SEMIFINALS AT INDIANAPOLIS
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Team records:
No 5 Butler Bulldogs (32-4, 18-0 Horizon)
No. 5 Michigan State Spartans (28-8, 14-4 Big 10)
Michigan St. vs Butler Odds
The odds makers have the Bulldogs as -1½ -point favorites.
The Over/Under is set at 126
Bulldogs vs. Spartans Preview:
The No. 5 Butler Bulldogs will prepare to do battle with the No. 5 Michigan State Spartans in the Final Four round of the 2010 NCAA Tournament on Saturday at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana.
The Bulldogs are making the first Final Four appearance in school history after beating No. 1 Syracuse and then upsetting second-seeded Kansas State 63-56 on Saturday. Gordon Hayward led the effort with a game-high 22 points, while Shelvin Mack scored 16 and Ronald Nored and Willie Veasley both put out key defensive efforts in the win.
The Bulldogs, who have now won 24 consecutive games, are allowing a stingy 56.5 points per game in tournament play and haven’t allowed to team to score 60 or more points in a single game since a 74-69 win at Valparaiso on Feb 26. The Bulldogs defense has definitely been the key.
Led by Veasley, the Horizon League Defensive Player of the Year, and Nored, the two combined with an all out effort holding KSU’s backcourt duo of Denis Clemente and Jacob Pullen scoreless for the first 25 minutes of the game.
Then there are the Spartans, a team that us on the opposite end of the spectrum in terms of experience this deep in the tourney. MSU is making its second consecutive Final Four appearance and its sixth in 12 years after a pair of Raymar Morgan free throws with 1.8 seconds left that lifted the Spartans to a 70-69 win over a tough Tennessee squad on Sunday.
Durrell Summers, who is averaging 22.5 points per game in the 2010 NCAA Tournament, led the charge with a game-high 21 points while Morgan recorded his sixth double-double of the season, scoring 13 points and grabbing a game-high ten rebounds in the win. The Spartans have managed to win two games in the absence of starting point guard Kalin Lucas as Summers,
Draymond Green and Korie Lucious have picked up the scoring slack with the team’s leading scorer out of action. 
Butler has proven they can win with defense. This is a team that beat No. 1 Syracuse on one night, then Kansas State the next, shutting down two power teams from power conferences, both with legitimate star players. While it is easy to categorize this team a scrappy over-achievers, don’t believe the hype.
Butler can play and have many different ways to win. One way is turnovers. In the last two rounds, the Bulldogs forced 34 (18 vs. Syracuse). While boasting no real particular standout, balanced scoring is another Butler strength. Five different players have led the team in scoring in the last 10 games.
For MSU, they first need to believe that Butler is the “real thing.” Secondly, they need shut down Hayward early on, stunting his effectiveness inside. The Bulldogs lack of real depth should give the Spartans an advantage, as it will be difficult to guard the interior as well as the perimeter.
This should open up opportunities for Lucious and Summers from outside. Their defense and rebounding are steady as usual at this time of year, and turnovers in general are less of an issue than they were for much of the season.
One intangible factor is how much support Butler will get in its hometown of Indianapolis.
Betting Trends:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Butler’s last 6 games
Michigan State is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Michigan State is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Butler is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Butler is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Spartans vs Bulldogs Free Final Four Pick
It has been quite a run for the Bulldogs, but Michigan State’s size, toughness and athleticism, particularly on the interior, will be too much as the Spartans win this one by four.
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Matt Martz is a freelance writer located in Central California. Blessed is the gambler who expects nothing, for ye shall not be disappointed.
