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2009 NCAA CBB Tourney Projections

Projecting the NCAA Tournament Field

We are winding down toward selection Sunday, now just 2 weeks away, and some Conference Tournaments get underway this week. Many teams have punched their ticket to the Big Dance, some others are close, and some others with work to do, and perhaps a surprise or two. Let’s take a look at who is likely in, and who is on the bubble.

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CONFERENCE CHAMPIONS (31):

AMERICAN EAST – VERMONT
ACC – NC
ATL SUN – JACKSONVILLE
ATL-10 – XAVIER
BIG EAST – CONNECTICUT
BIG SKY – WEBER ST.
BIG SO. – RADFORD
BIG-10 – MICHIGAN ST.
BIG-12 – KANSAS
BIG WEST – CS NORTH RIDGE
COLONIAL – VCU
C-USA – MEMPHIS
HORIZON – BUTLER
IVY – CORNELL
MAAC – SIENA
MID AMER – BUFFALO
MEAC – MORGAN ST.
MVC – CREIGHTON
MTN WEST – UTAH
N’EAST – RBT MORRIS
OVC – TENN MARTIN
PAC-10 – WASHINGTON
PATRIOT – AMERICAN
SEC – LSU
SOUTHERN – DAVIDSON
SOUTHLAND – SF AUSTIN
SUMMIT – N. DAKOTA ST.
SUN BELT – W. KENTUCKY
SWAC – ALABAMA ST.
WCAC – GONZAGA
WAC – UTAH ST.

AT LARGE ALREADY PUCHED THEIR TICKET: (28)

DUKE
WAKE FOREST
FLORIDA ST
CLEMSON
LOUISVILLE
MARQUETTE
SYRACUSE
PITT
VILLONOVA
W. VIRGINIA
ILLINOIS
WISCONSIN
PURDUE
OKLAHOMA
TEXAS
MISSOURI
OKLAHOMA ST.
KANSAS ST.
BYU
SAN DIEGO ST.
N. MEXICO
UCLA
CALIFORNIA
AZ ST.
AZ
FLORIDA
TENNESSEE
KENTUCKY

THAT LEAVES 6 SPOTS FOR WHAT AS I SEE AS 15 TEAMS:

LIKELY IN:

SOUTH CAROLINA: At 20-7 on the season and an RPI of 50, they will have to play themselves out, rather than in
OHIO ST.: They are 18-9 and 8-8 in the Big-10. Their RPI is a borderline 46, and have a strong chance to get in, but better add to the win total to make sure.
MINNESOTA: They are 20-8 and 8-8. They are similar to Ohio St. with an RPI of 47. Better keep winning to be sure.

FATE DECIDED IN THE UPCOMING 2 WEEKS:

UNLV
ST. MARY’S
TEXAS A&M
BOSTON COLLEGE: Likely in but with an RPI of 61 can’t guarantee it.
PENN ST. Like a lot of other teams work to be done: RPI 79 will hurt bad
TEXAS A&M: RPI 49, looks to be in ok shape, but more wins would aid the cause
UNLV: RPI 48, and definately needs some work

NEEDS A LOT OF BREAKS:

VIRGINIA TECH: RPI of 73 is need of improvement
MARYLAND: RPI of 70 needs some work, and just 1 road win
PROVIDENCE: RPI of 74 needs some work
AUBURN: RPI of 65 needs some work
HOUSTON: RPI of 56 is gonna be tough to get in
DAYTON: 24-5 and it will be very difficult to keep them out, but 78 RPI says, don’t take it for granted!
TEAMS WITH GREAT RPI’S BUT NEED WORK:
MIAMI,FLA.: RPI 26. Just 17 wins but a very solid RPI, but 6-8 record in conference play, needs some work, but have a shot
GEORGETOWN: Record is just 15-12 but #1 schedule in the country, and an RPI of 21. A few years ago, Georgia was rewarded by playing the toughest schedule in the country, a low RPI and just a 16-13 record, so the Hoyas aren’t dead, but need work.
ALA-BIRM: RPI is 32 very solid, and they have a 20-9 record, but in a dead conferenc. They are definately in the hunt, and a few more wins, it will be hard to keep them out.

There can be a lot of arguements made for all the above teams, and the last week, along with the Conference Tournaments are going to play a big role in who rises, and who falls.

There is also one other caveat, and it is one noone of the bubble teams want to see. There are a few teams, that if they don’t win their confernce tournament they will get an at large bid, reducing the at large bids by one for everyone that gets upset in a single bid conference.

TEAMS FROM 1 BID CONFERENCES THAT LOSE THEIR CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP, BUT WOULD STILL GET A BID:

GONZAGA
UTAH ST.
BUTLER
CREIGHTON
DAVIDSON

Hope your favorite team is on this list, and if I had to pick the 4 number 1 seeds right now, my choices would be:

PITTSBURGH
UCONN
N. CAROLINA
OKLAHOMA

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Comments

Comments

  1. My favorite thing about the conference tournaments, especially the non-major conferences, is finding a team that has no business getting to the big dance, but makes a unbelievable run to win the Championship. My pick this year is in the Colonial Athletic League, Old Dominion. The struggled mid year but have come on as of late getting to the 3rd seed in the conference tournament. Look for them to knock off VCU in the final to punch their ticket.

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