Northwestern Wildcats vs. No. 20 Illinois Fighting Illini Gambling Preview + Predictions
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Northwestern at Illinois Matchup
Date/Time: Thursday, January 6, 9 PM ET
Venue: Assembly Hall, Champaign, IL
Broadcast: ESPN2
Northwestern Wildcats vs. Illinois Fighting Illini Betting Lines from JustBet.com
Money Line: Northwestern (+350) Illinois (-450)
Spread: Illinois -9
Over/Under: 144.5
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Northwestern Wildcats vs. No. 20 Illinois Fighting Illini Preview
Illinois (12-3) is the 3rd ranked team in row in the Big 10 that Northwestern (9-3) will face and the Wildcats dropped their first 2 and are now 0-2 in conference play. On the other side of the coin Illinois has won 2 conference games in a row including a win over a ranked Wisconsin squad in their last game. College basketball lines have Illinois as a big 9-point home favorite in this game with a total of 144.5.
In their last games Northwestern lost to Michigan State 65-62 on Monday night while Illinois beat Wisconsin 69-61 on Sunday.
This season Northwestern is 4-3 ATS and Illinois is 8-7 ATS.
The only losses that Illinois has this season have been against the ranked teams of Texas and Missouri. Illinois hasn’t lost at home to Northwestern since 1999.
After starting out strong winning their first 8 games the Wildcats have dropped 3 of their last 4.
For Northwestern to pull off the upset they will need a good game from leading scorer John Shurna (21.3 ppg). He has to play better than he did in the Wildcats’ loss to Michigan State where he was only 1/11 shooting and only 1/5 from 3-point land. He is one of the best 3-point shooters in the nation shooting an incredible 58.3% from deep. For the Michigan State game Northwestern shot a season low 31.6% from the floor.
The Wildcats are a high scoring team ranking 48th in the nation in scoring and they also have great ball movement ranking 18th in assists per game. They will have to score and move the ball well tonight since they will not win on the boards since they only rank 295th in the nation in rebounds per game.
Illinois plays the same type of game, but they have a better rebounding team. The Illini are led by the backcourt G duo of Demetri McCamey (16.3 ppg 7.3 assists per game) and D.J. Richardson (11.2 ppg). McCamey is hitting on 52.2% of his 3-pointers and Richardson is at a 45.5% clip from deep and if they hit the long ball tonight the Illini will easily win.
The Wildcats were killed on the boards in their last 2 games getting out-rebounded by at least 10 in each game. The Wildcats do not have a lot of size inside and they will need 6’11” C Luka Mirkovic (6.6 rpg) to man up on 7’1 Illini C Mike Tisdale (7.2 ppg) and not let him dominate the glass. This is especially the case on the offensive end, as Tisdale is averaging almost 3 offensive rebounds per game.
Illinois is not a great defensive team and they have given up an average of 71 ppg in their last 3 games. However, if they play good perimeter D on Shurna and G Michael Thompson (14.8 ppg) they will be in good shape. Thomson is a 5’10” speedster than leads the Wildcats in assists per game (4.5) and the Illini can’t allow him to get in the lane and dish out the rock.
Northwestern has had problems with fouls this season and if their big men, especially Luka Mirkovic, have foul problems they will be killed in this game.
Illini have a legit national championship team while Northwestern will have trouble just making it into the Big Dance, especially after their 0-2 conference start. Illinois has yet to lose in the Big 10 this season and that will continue in this game, as their backcourt will score in bunches and they will dominate the boards. This game will not be close either so take Illinois to cover the 9-point spread.
Betting Trends
Illinois is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games against teams in the Big Ten and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record.
Northwestern is 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 road games and 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams in the Big Ten.
Pick: Illinois -9
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