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North Carolina Tar Heels Predictions: 2012 Future Lines & Gambling Analysis

UNC Tar Heels Season Preview – CBB Handicapping

Last year’s North Carolina team was typically good sending 4 players to the NBA. In typical Roy Williams fashion they led the conference in scoring on the way to a stellar 14-2 conference record.

North Carolina Tar Heels Odds to Win (By bovada.lv)
ACC
2011-12 Record: 32-6
Odds to win title: +1000
Odds to win conference: +300

Key losses:

Harrison Barnes –  One of four players drafted to the league and last year’s leading scorer.  He may not have lived up to expectations but was still very good.
Tyler Zeller – The Tar heels most consistent player became a force in his senior year.
Kendall Marshall – Never a great scorer but nobody was better at running a team last year than we was.
John Henson – Another player who disappointed a bit but was an absolute monster rebounding and blocking shots with his length.

Top Newcomers:

Marcus Paige – He is the only scholarship point guard on the team so he will probably play a lot.
Joel James – Forward comes in with an NBA ready body to create space up front.
Brice Johnson – Similar build to Henson but probably more athletic.

Top Players

James Michael McAdoo – Now that the NBA has gobbled up his competition he is supposed to double or triple his production.
P.J. Hairston – Another sophomore who is looking to explode with more playing time.
Dexter Strickland – Lone senior shooter is a clutch performer who will provide leadership.

Now they might be the third best team in the state if you can believe it.  This team is definitely untested compared to last year but the talent may not be that far off with some key players ready to explode.

McAdoo and Hairston are those players.  Both were highly recruited but couldn’t really argue to get significantly more playing time given who was playing ahead of them.  Everyone is predicting McAdoo will just explode but I am not entirely sure.  He should double his production but often seemed a little too complacent.  Hairston is supposed to be a fantastic shooter and I think he could lead the team in scoring.  That should get him noticed. [ad-6571516]

Strengths

Even though they lost a ton of talent to the pro ranks I think the great strength is the talent they have returning that is now seasoned and ready to rock.  Whereas a squad like Kentucky has few to turn to with any real experience in their program, UNC in McAdoo, Hairston and more has players that know what to expect and should be able to just play.  This means this team should be pretty strong from the get go instead of peaking at the end.

Weaknesses

It has been proven that Roy Williams needs a quality point to make this program go (who doesn’t).  This year they are kind of putting all of their eggs in one basket in assuming that the freshman Paige can handle the duties.  That is kind of a lot to ask at a high profile program like this and even though he is highly thought of he is not a Derrick Rose/John Wall level recruit.  Little depth after him as well.

Top Games

Nov. 16 – A visit to Indiana will help prove which one of these teams is a legit threat at the title.  Especially if UNC wins.
Dec. 29 – UNLV comes to Chapel Hill looking to shock the Tar Heels…again.
Mar. 9 – Standard final game of the year against Duke (at home).  Usually a good tone setter for post season play.

Prediction

It is kind of funny to think of the Tar Heels as the third best team in the state of North Carolina.  They should still challenge for the ACC title and if Paige is the real deal then they just might have the right mix to put a scare into some teams.  There is no team they do not have enough talent to beat but this feels like a team that won’t get past the Sweet Sixteen.  If key players stick around for another year though – lookout.

By The Wiesguy

The Wiesguy is a newcomer to the handicapping scene. Hailing from Toronto, Canada he is always sweet on the underdogs and you can often find his thoughts, musings and picks at moneydogs.blogspot.com.