NBA Handicapping Predictions – Celtics vs Heat
The Heat are big favorites tonight and to win this series facing the Celtics, but this season Boston beat Miami in 3 of 4 games.
Venue/ Stadium: American Airlines Arena, Miami, FL
Time/Date: 8:30 PM EST Monday, May 28, 2012
NBA Odds From: Bovada
Moneyline: Celtics +350 / Heat -450
Spread (ATS): Heat -8
Over/Under: 180
Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Preview
The reason they won those games is that they held them to an average of 90 ppg and they will have to play great defense in order to win tonight’s game and the series. NBA lines have the Heat as 8-point home favorites tonight with a total of 180.
In closing out their last series’ the Celtics beat the Philadelphia 76ers 85-75 and the Heat beat the Indiana Pacers 105-93.
This season the Celtics are 40-37-2 ATS with an O/U record of 34-42-3 and the Heat are 40-37 with an O/U record of 30-45-2.
On the season the Heat are 28-5 at home and the Celtics are 15-18 on the road.
Chris Bosh is out for tonight’s game and he may miss the series. With him out LeBron James will need some help inside, especially on the boards and guarding Kevin Garnett, who has played great in the post-season.
Obviously Dwyane Wade and LeBron James are the key players for Miami and they have to play like they did in the Pacers’ series and not settle for jumpers and they must attack the rim and get easy shots near the bucket. Conversely, the Celtics must play good team D against these guys since the Celtics are hurting and do not have a player, who can keep up with James and Wade. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Rajon Rondo has to pace the Celtics and give the team scoring and get his teammates involved. Paul Pierce must score and Ray Allen, who is less than 100%, must knock down some 3’s to keep the Miami D honest.
The Heat are a younger and more athletic team than the Celtics and Boston has to get back in the transition game and now allow the Heat to get out on the break and get easy fast-break points.
With Bosh out the Heat need other players to help out on offense, especially Mario Chalmers, Udonis Haslem, and Mike Miller. Miller is key, as his 3-point shooting will be needed so Boston does not clog the paint to try to contain James and Wade.
In some betting trends for this Eastern Conference finals’ match up the Celtics are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 playoff games as an underdog, and they have an Over record of 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points.
The Heat are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall, and they have an Under record of 24-8 in their last 32 home games.
Jason’s Pick: The Celtics have covered the spread in all 4 games facing the Heat this season and that trend will continue. The Heat will win this game, but the Celtics will not get blown out and they will cover tonight in a low scoring game.
