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Merril: Nuggets vs. Suns Handicapping

The Nuggets are currently in first place in the Northwest division and one game ahead of Portland in the standings, here’s a quick preview for tonights Denver Nuggets vs. Phoenix Suns matchup…

NBA Fullcourt Report (Monday, Mar. 23)

Below is a look at the top matchup in the NBA for Monday night:

Nuggets vs. Suns (-3½, 236½) – 10:05 pm ET

Playoff Positioning

The Nuggets are currently in first place in the Northwest division and one game ahead of Portland in the standings. As a division winner, the Nuggets would automatically earn a top three seed in the Western Conference playoffs and would actually face Portland if the playoffs began today.Overall, Denver has the fourth best record in the conference with a 45-25 (.643) SU mark.

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Phoenix is currently 38-31 SU (.551) and ranked ninth in the Western Conference. The Suns are 3½ games behind Dallas for the final playoff spot with just 13 games remaining. If Phoenix was in the weaker Eastern Conference, they would currently be the fifth seed in the upcoming playoffs.

High-scoring shootout

The Suns have been playing at an extremely fast pace since Alvin Gentry took over the head coaching role after the All-Star break. Phoenix scored 140 and 142 points in the first two games versus the Clippers and Phoenix has averaged 121.1 points per game (18 games) since the All-Star break. While the offense has been fantastic, the defense has been lacking as Phoenix has allowed 114.8 points per game. This works out to an average score of 235.9 points per game with a 12-6 Over mark.

Denver also prefers to play at a fast pace as they average 103.3 points per game, but allow 100.3 points. The Nuggets scored at least 107 points or more in each of their past five games and those past five games have gone 4-1 Over with an average total score of 214.0 points per game which is well above the league average of 200 points per game.

Injuries

Denver has battled numerous injuries this season with Carmelo Anthony and Kenyon Martin both missing extended time. The team is now completely healthy and all players will be in the lineup tonight.

Phoenix is without Amare Stoudamire for the rest of the season after he injured his eye on February 18th. Stoudamire leads the team in scoring (21.4 ppg) and is second in rebounding (8.1 rpg) and blocks (1.1 bpg). The Suns are just 8-8 SU (9-7 ATS) in their past sixteen games without Stoudamire in the lineup and they been particularly bad when facing quality teams with a 1-8 SU record versus the Celtics, Lakers, Magic, Heat, Rockets, Spurs, Mavericks, and Cavaliers. The Suns are 7-0 SU when facing weaker teams with wins versus the Thunder, Bobcats, Raptors, Warriors, Sixers, and Wizards.

The Suns suffered another key injury last Wednesday when guard Leandro Barbosa suffered a knee injury and he will now be out for the next couple of weeks. Barbosa leads the team in steals (1.2 spg) and is fifth on the team in scoring (14.3 ppg). Barbosa had been playing particularly well before his injury and had averaged 19.8 points in his previous six games.

Head-to-head

The home team is a perfect 8-0 straight-up in the past eight head-to-head meetings, including both games this season. Phoenix won the first meeting at home on December 20th, 108-101, as a 5½-point favorite and the game stayed Under the closing total of 222 points. Amare Stoudamire led all scorers with 27 points and also had 10 rebounds. J.R. Smith had a surprising strong game and led the Nuggets with 23 points.

Denver won the rematch in overtime on January 15th, 119-113, as a 2½-point home favorite. Both the side and total result changed because of overtime as the game was tied 103-103 at the end of regulation time before the Nuggets got the pointspread cover and the game went Over the posted total of 217½ points. Both teams were short-handed as Phoenix played without Shaquille O’Neal and the Nuggets were without Carmelo Anthony. The Suns were led in scoring by Grant Hill with 25 points, while Chauncey Billups led the Nuggets with 26 points.

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