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Dallas Mavs vs. Milwaukee Bucks Free NBA Pick (Jan. 21)

Dallas at Milwaukee – Dirk Nowitzki is HOT right now

BetUS NBA Basketball Betting Odds: MILWAUKEE -1, Total 203

Here are some of the NBA pro basketball sports betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* DALL has covered three of its last nine games
* DALL has lost four of its last six games SU * DALL has played 14 of its last 21 games UNDER the total
* DALL has covered 11 of its last 16 road games
* DALL has lost four of its last five road games SU
* DALL has played six of its last seven road games UNDER the total
* MIL is 2-5-1 ATS in its last eight games
* MIL has lost four of its last six games SU
* MIL has played eight of its last ten games OVER the total
* MIL has covered 10 of its last 15 home games
* MIL has covered two of its last six home games
* MIL has won eight of its last 11 home games SU
* MIL has played four of its last five home games OVER the total

Also…

* MIL has covered five of the last six meetings
* DALL has won four of the last five meetings SU
* Eleven of the last 14 meetings have gone OVER the total
* MIL is 7-0-1 ATS in the last eight meetings as the home team
* MIL has won 11 of the last 14 meetings SU as the home team * Five of the last seven meetings in Milwaukee have gone OVER the total
* DALL has had the shooting edge in seven of the last ten meetings
* MIL has had the rebounding edge in six of the last nine meetings

Back spasms have really continued to hamper Andrew Bogut. He missed four games from January 3-9, then after playing in three contests, he has sat out the last three. Milwaukee has been hammered the last two games by the Clippers (101-92) and Blazers (102-85) and that is no coincidence. Putting Dan Gadzuric into the pivot creates a real liability, because the former UCLA star can’t defend. Portland’s Greg Oden ate him alive, with 24 points (a career high) and 15 rebounds (tying a career high).

Dallas has been trying to work out elements of its lineup, most notably the shooting guard position. Jerry Stackhouse has had his heel injury to deal with, and Rick Carlisle has been throwing a lot of guys out there to team with Jason Kidd. Antoine Wright has a grip on the position for the time being, and the Mavs hope that Matt Carroll, just acquired from Charlotte, will give them some offensive spark off the bench. Carroll has not been very productive this season, although he averaged nine points for the Bobcats last season, making almost 44% of his shots from three-point range. It’s a safe assumption that the second-year player from Notre Dame will log more minutes than the 14 per game he had for Larry Brown thus far.

Milwaukee has covered 11 of 18 games as a home team, but I don’t know if they can carry a number as long as they are missing their big man. In the last eight days, Dirk Nowitzki has scored 39 points against Utah and 44 against Denver. Who guards him? Jason Kidd looked like he was getting out of a shooting slump with an 8-for-11 performance against Philadelphia. That came after 7-for-37 over the previous four games. His 15 assists against Utah on Saturday weren’t bad. Yes, Bucks fans, he rates an advantage over Luke Ridnour, who has had 21 assists and just three turnovers in the last three games.

Let’s go with the Mavs, the one-point underdog in the BetUS NBA betting odds.

Our PLAY: DALLAS +1 ***

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