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Heat vs. Kings Free NBA Pick (Jan. 9)

NBA Betting Breakdown – Heat at Kings

BetUS NBA Basketball Betting Odds: MIAMI -4.5, Total 193.5

Here are some of the NBA pro basketball sports betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* MIA has its last four games ATS
* MIA has lost four of its last six games SU   * MIA has played nine of its last 13 games UNDER the total
* MIA has lost four of its last five road games SU
* MIA has played four of its last six road games UNDER the total
* SAC has lost ten of its last 11 games SU
* SAC has played eight of its last 11 games UNDER the total
* SAC has covered two of its last 12 home games
* SAC has lost 11 of its last 14 home games SU
* SAC has played six of its last nine home games UNDER the total

Also….

* MIA has covered ten of the last 11 meetings
* MIA has won nine of the last ten meetings SU
* Nine of the last 13 meetings have gone UNDER the total
* MIA has covered four of the last five meetings as the road team
* Four of the last six meetings in Sacramento have gone UNDER the total
* MIA has had the shooting edge in each of the last ten meetings
* MIA has made more three-pointers in six of the last nine meetings

You can’t accuse the Kings of not playing hard under interim coach Kenny Natt. Sacramento has lost its last four games, all on the road, but has covered three of them, including a 99-94 defeat to the Bulls on Tuesday night in which they got unexpected production out of the center spot with 18 points and 12 rebounds by Brad Miller, not to mention 29 points from Kevin Martin, who is shaking off the effects of his ankle injury. That was the first game Martin has started since December 6 (he had been coming off the bench). In his last three games, Martin has scored 110 points.

Miami has failed to cover its last four. On Wednesday they went to Denver and dropped a 108-97 decision to a Nugget team that was playing without star forward Carmelo Anthony, who is out with a hand injury. Shawn Marion, who is averaging 12 points a game, led the Heat with 25 points. Marion is making noises about not being able to fit in with this offense, which could be the first sign that he wants out.

Miami does not carry a number well, covering four of 15 games as a favorite. However, there is this little matter of the Heat absolutely dominating this series. They have won nine of ten against the Kings and covered ten of eleven, and you can’t exhibit much more mastery than that.

Emblematic of that was the October 31 meetings, when Miami shot 57% from three-point range and held Martin to nine points, while Sacramento committed 25 turnovers on a 103-77 embarrassment.

Sacramento, a team that always had a great home court edge under Rick Adelman, has not found success at ARCO, covering two of their last 12. They’ve had a couple of days off after an eastern swing, which is a positive, but they were probably better off away from their largely disgruntled fans. We are going to lay the points with the Miami Heat, the 4.5-point favorite in the BetUS NBA pro basketball sports betting odds.

Our PLAY: MIAMI -4.5 ***

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