THURSDAY APRIL 29, 2010 – Dallas Mavericks vs San Antonio Spurs
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Team records:
Dallas: 55-27 SU, 36-44-2 ATS
San Antonio: 50-32 SU, 44-37-1 ATS
Since the days when Red Auerbach and George Mikan roamed the infant NBA back in the 1950s, every coach of every team in a 3-1 playoff series hole has said the same thing: “We’re not thinking about winning three in a row.
Matchup: MAVERICKS vs. SPURS
Time: Time: Thursday 8:00 ET
Venue: AT&T Center, San Antonio
Spread: Spurs -3.5
Over/Under: 191
We’re thinking about winning one game.”
It’s not anything different for the Dallas Mavericks, who pooped away home court advantage in Game 2 and averaged less than 90 points a game in losing three straight to the Spurs.
They started the long road back with a win at home, but face their second straight elimination game Thursday night in San Antonio.
Two contradictory forces are at work Thursday. During the regular season Dallas had a terrific 27-14 road record – the best in the league. But (and it’s a big but) the Mavericks’ playoff road record is 2-15 since taking a 2-0 lead in the 2006 NBA Finals against the Miami Heat.
A win tonight would allow Mavericks fans to exhale deeply and set up a winner-take-all Game 7 back in Dallas. It would also validate the Mavs’ daring mid-season trade that brought in Caron Butler, Brendan Haywood and DeShawn Stevenson. Not many teams can turn over 33 percent of their rotation and live to tell about it.
Expect a track meet as the Mavericks do everything they can to make the weary Spurs defend 94 feet of court. If it’s one thing that Dallas has learned in the first five games of this series, it’s that San Antonio can play one hellacious defense when it gets an opponent in a half-court set. In its two victories, Dallas scored in triple digits both times. In the three losses, the Mavs had 88, 89 and 90.
Can they win one game? They’ve already done that.
Can they win tonight? Maybe.
And if they win tonight, they will be favored to make it three in a row in Game 7 Saturday.
“They’re up 3-2 and we did it to ourselves,” says Haywood. “We’re in a position where we have to fight and put a lot of pressure on them. If we win the game, then it becomes anybody’s series, and that’s what we have to do.”
Free Mavericks vs. Spurs NBA Game 6 Pick:
Pick the winner here and you can pretty much determine the O/U. In both Dallas victories the over has carried, while San Antonio victories have resulted in two unders and a push. One key factor Thursday night is the puzzling status of Tim Duncan, who started the series averaged 26 points and 10 rebounds in the first three games, and over the last two has had just 15 points total.
Spurs get it together and end the series tonight. Take SA and lay the 3.5. Parlay players can profit off the Spurs and the under.
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Lawrence Paul is a regular contributor to the Cappers Picks Blog, and is a free-lance gambling and travel expert from Massachusetts.
