THURSDAY MAY 27, 2010 – Phoenix Suns vs. Los Angeles Lakers
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Team records:
Phoenix: 54-28 SU, 48-32-2 ATS
L.A.: 57-25 SU, 34-46-2 ATS
Welcome to the Alice in Wonderland NBA playoffs, Western Conference division, where up is down and down is up, and every assumption we held is now has all the value of drain water.
What was once a best-of-seven series is now best-of-three, thanks to an unexpected two-game sweep in Phoenix.
As dominant as the Lakers were at home in Games 1 and 2, the Suns were just as solid in Games 3 and 4 in the desert.
Matchup: SUNS vs. LAKERS
Time: Thursday 9:00 ET
Venue: Staples Center, Los Angeles
Spread: Lakers -7.5
Over/Under: 217.5
Now what?
One overnight radio talk show host may have said it best – just pick the home team and take your chances.
As the series heads back to Los Angeles for Game 5 Thursday night, the Lakers’ best ally may be their experience and unshakeable confidence. LA was in the same spot a month ago in Round 1 when the Thunder evened the series by winning Games 3 and 4 at home, then LA calmly took care of business in Game 5 and won at the buzzer in Game 6 in OKC.
One thing that is clear about this series is that the Lakers’ need Andrew Bynum if they hope to exploit their advantage on the front line. Bynum played nearly 25 minutes in Game 4 and scored 12 points with 8 rebounds.
That will be the minimum nightly production LA will require to stave off the Suns.
The Suns, meanwhile, have to wonder what kind of game they’ll get from Amar’e Stoudemire. In two games in Phoenix Stoudemire was a wild man, scoring a total of 63 points and pulling down 19 rebounds.
But in Games 1 and 2 in La-La Land, the numbers were soft – 41 points and only 9 boards. 
For two teams that are even at 2 wins apiece, this series has not produced one close games. Los Angeles won Games 1 and 2 by an average of 16.5 points, and the Suns won in Games 3 and 4 by 9 points each time.
We’re overdue for a tight game that goes three hours, with time-outs and free throws down the stretch deciding things.
Suns vs. Lakers Game 5 Free NBA Prediction
If you like conspiracy theories, try this one on for size – the three referees working the game tonight (Marc Davis, Bob Delaney and Bennett Salvatore) all have records strongly favoring home teams.
Home teams are 43-31 this season in games worked by Davis, 42-26 SU when Delaney works their games, and a whopping 47-24 in home games when Salvatore works.
The advice here is pretty obvious – Lakers on the money line, with maybe a smaller hedge bet taking the Suns and the big number – 7.5.
You may be able to catch both bets.
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Lawrence Paul is a regular contributor to the Cappers Picks Blog, and is a free-lance gambling and travel expert from Massachusetts.
