Heat vs. Mavs Free NBA Game 4 Pick | Gambling Preview

NBA Finals Betting – Tuesday Picks – Miami Heat vs Dallas Mavericks

Before nba betting fans turn their attention to more basketball betting events this week, we have some more good NBA Playoff gambling matchups to pick on tap, and our man Lawrence weighs in with his picks for game 4 of the Mavs vs. Heat. It’s time for our weekly Playoff hoops picks for NBA gambling action.

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HEAT vs. MAVERICKS
Time: Tuesday 9 p.m. EST
Venue: American Airlines Center, Dallas
Spread: Mavericks -3
Over/Under: 186.5
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We’ve learned one thing about the Dallas Mavericks and the NBA Finals – mainly, that they have very little chance of winning this series as long as 40 percent of their points come from Dirk Nowitzki. In Game 3 the Mavs got all of 27 points from starters not named Nowitzki, and while DW’s 34 were good enough to keep Dallas in the game, Rick Carlisle has to be just about begging someone else to step up.

Miami showed in the Chicago series that one-man offenses just aren’t going to get it done against the Heat, who have now held Dallas to an average of 88 points through three games. That’s 12 fewer points than the Mavs averaged during the regular season, so it’s pretty evident that the series in playing out on Miami’s terms, the Game 2 uber collapse notwithstanding. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

The Heat have been accused to cashing verbal checks that their accounts can’t cover, but they have now proven that they can win on the road and they need just two wins in the remaining four games to get the first of what they say will be six (or is it seven?) championships.

And as the Mavs scour the game program trying to find someone with chestnuts large enough to respond to the moment, the Heat seem to have already found them. Chris Bosh, of all people, came through with 18 points in Game 3 (although the team was an alarming -10 with him on the court), and Udonis Haslem had a huge fourth-quarter and gives Miami some of the toughness they don’t get from Bosh.

NBA Trends:

Over is 9-3-1 in MIA last 13 Tue. games.
DAL are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games.
DAL are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games overall.
DAL are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 vs. NBA Southeast.
Road team is 21-8-1 ATS in the last 30 meetings.
Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Dallas.

BEST BET: Larry Bird used to say series turn on Game 4s, and this one is no different. Dallas has been completely outplayed in the series with the exception of the final minutes of Game 2. Miami +3 in this one.

Totals players no doubt have noticed that the number is down a few points after two unders and a push at the 188 mark in Games 1-2-3. Dallas starters Jason Terry, Tyson Chandler, Jason Kidd and Shawn Marion combined to shoot 9 for 25 from the floor in Game 3.

They should shoot better, but Miami has controlled the tempo of the series, so it’s best to avoid a bet on the total.

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Lawrence Paul is a regular contributor to the Cappers Picks Blog, and is a free-lance gambling expert from Massachusetts.