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Dallas Mavericks vs. Miami Heat NBA Finals Pick

NBA Final Gambling Online: Dallas Mavericks vs Miami Heat NBA Lines

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Date/Time: Thursday, June 2, 9:00 PM ET
Venue: American Airlines Center in Miami, FL.
Broadcast: ABC
Dallas Mavericks at Miami Heat Betting Lines
Money Line: Dallas +175, Miami -210
Spread: Heat -4 ½
Over/Under: 186

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The Dallas Mavericks will look to even the series after a convincing defeat at the hands of the Miami Heat during game one of the NBA Finals before heading to Dallas for a three-game home stretch.

The first game of the 2011 NBA Finals is in the books, as the Miami Heat soundly defeated the Dallas Mavericks 92-84 behind the “big three’s” 65 total points.

Lebron James scored 24 points, while Dwyane Wade added 22 with 10 rebounds. Dirk Nowitzki scored 27 points for Dallas, hovering around his average for the postseason, but tore a tendon in the middle finger of his non-shooting hand.

Nowitzki’s teammates didn’t show up like they had before against the Los Angeles Lakers in round two, and then in the Western Conference Finals against the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Dallas’ bench was outscored by Miami’s 27-17, with J.J. Barea and Peja Stojakovic combining for just two points on 1-11 shooting. Mario Chalmers added 12 off the bench for Miami.

The defense was the story of the night, as both teams shot below .400, but it was Miami’s that slowed Dallas’ star player. The offensive brilliance that Nowitzki dished out throughout the first three rounds seemed all but forgotten, and although his 27 points led the night, his team needed much more.

There were stretches where Dallas looked dominant (scoring 51 points in the first 26 minutes), and stretches where they looked like they didn’t belong (a 6-minute stretch with zero points midway through the third quarter).

The three-point shooting Dallas rode through the first three rounds was gone, as they shot 9-22 from outside.

Although statistically the teams almost mirrored each other, with Miami finishing with a .388% shooting percentage, and the Mavericks with 37.3 percent the attribute that won the game for Miami was the same it has been all postseason: second-half dominance. The Heat showed up when it mattered and closed out the game yet again in the fourth quarter.

The Heat is unbeaten in Game 2’s during this playoff run, with James averaging 31 points, leading his team in each of the three games. Dallas is 2-1 is those games, with Nowitzki averaging 28.6 points.

Recent Trends:
DAL are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 road games.
DAL are 13-37-2 ATS in their last 52 Thu. games.
DAL are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games overall.
Road team is 10-2-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings.

Matt’s Free Prediction: Miami – With a torn tendon in his non-shooting hand, Dirk will look to carry his team to a win in game two to even the series, don’t count on it. Miami with suffocate him all game yet again and force Jason Kidd to take over, which will not happen. The Heat will head to Dallas up 2-0 for a three-game home stretch for the Mavericks.

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Matt Martz is a sportswriter for the Bakersfield Californian, the Oregonian, Springfield Republican, Sacramento Bee, and the San Diego Union Tribune. I leave handicapping to the pros. Blessed is the gambler who expects nothing, for ye shall not be disappointed.

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