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Dallas Mavericks vs. Miami Heat NBA Finals Pick

NBA Final Gambling Online: Dallas Mavericks vs Miami Heat NBA Lines

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Date/Time: Tuesday, May 31, 9:00 PM ET
Venue: American Airlines Center in Miami, FL.
Broadcast: ABC
Dallas Mavericks at Miami Heat Betting Lines
Money Line: Dallas +170, Miami -200
Spread: Heat -4 ½
Over/Under: 187

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Will Dirk Notwitzki’s nightmares of losing to Miami twice in the Finals become a reality, or will the last several outcomes between the two teams, be an indication that Dallas has what it takes to beat the Heat? We’ll find out on Tuesday, as the Mavericks head to South Beach to take on Miami in Game 1 of the 2011 NBA Finals on ABC.

The Mavs won the regular season series 2-0, and since losing to Heat in the 2006 Finals, have won the last 10 meetings between the two teams straight up.

Dallas leaned heavily on its solid defense in the first two rounds of this postseason, but then struggled to maintain that presence, having instead to rely on the hot hand of Nowitzki to knock off a younger Oklahoma Thunder squad who forced them to seven games. Supported by a veteran crew, Nowitzki put on a stellar performance against the Thunder, finishing with averages of 32.2 ppg and 5.8 rpg, including many clutch shots down the stretch.

However, one has to wonder if there’s enough left in the Mavs aging tank to slow down a Heat team that seem to peaking offensively at the right time, not to mention that Miami’s defense has also been playing extremely well as a team, in addition to having potentially two suitable defenders to guard Nowitzki in Chris Bosh and LeBron James.

James, Bosh and Dwyane Wade have lived up to their lofty preseason expectations, weathering the media frenzy that surrounded them all season long, and have found themselves exactly where they want to be after knocking off the regular season champion Chicago Bulls in five games in the Eastern Conference Finals.

The Heat simply had simply too much firepower for the Bulls to contend with, but didn’t face the defensive challenge the Mavs posses.

Shawn Marion and DeShawn Stevenson proved themselves as formidable one-on-one defenders against LaMarcus Aldridge, Kobe Bryant, and Kevin Durant, while Tyson Chandler remains one of the best defenders in the league down low. But how will this veteran unit matchup individually against the Heat’s trio of terror?

Nevertheless, the one area that the Heat are thin is in bench production, a place that Dallas surpasses them. This could make things difficult if the Heat allow the games to head into the extra periods.

Recent Trends:
DAL are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. NBA Southeast.
DAL are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games overall.
Over is 6-2 in DAL last 8 vs. NBA Southeast.
Over is 8-3 in MIA last 11 overall.
MIA are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 Tue. games.
Road team is 19-7-1 ATS in the last 27 meetings.
Over is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in Miami.

Matt’s Free Prediction: Miami – I expect this game to be much more up-tempo than we will see as the series progresses. For that fact, I think we can expect to see both teams trading baskets in the first half. However, the Heat have shown too many times as in the Boston and Chicago series, their ability to pull away in the fourth quarter. That, with the electricity of the home crowd, should be enough to propel them to win in Game 1.


Matt Martz is a sportswriter for the Bakersfield Californian, the Oregonian, Springfield Republican, Sacramento Bee, and the San Diego Union Tribune. I leave handicapping to the pros. Blessed is the gambler who expects nothing, for ye shall not be disappointed.


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  1. Anonymous says:

    Can anybody imagine a scenario where the Mavs actually walk in and win game 1? For the record. I Can! 1 Loss since April 23rd folks! Watch out for Big D on Tuesday.