Mavs vs. Heat Free NBA Game 1 Pick | Gambling Preview

NBA Finals Betting – Tuesday Picks – Dallas Mavericks vs Miami Heat

Before nba betting fans turn their attention to more basketball betting events this week, we have some more good NBA Playoff gambling matchups to pick on tap, and our man Lawrence weighs in with his picks for game 1 of the Mavs vs. Heat. It’s time for our weekly Playoff hoops picks for NBA gambling action.

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MAVERICKS vs. HEAT
Time: Tuesday 9 p.m. EST
Venue: American Airlines Arena, Miami
Spread: Heat -4.5
Over/Under: 187
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The question today is how to attack a Miami Heat defense that has at long last figured things out? A defense that has LeBron James applying tremendous perimeter pressure, Dwyane Wade free to interrupt passing lanes, and Joel Anthony, Chris Bosh and Udonis Haslem with enough length to hold their own against half-decent front lines.

The 76ers had no chance no matter what they tried, the Celtics tried uptempo and were shut down whenever they needed a basket to stay alive, and the Bulls tried to slow things down. All to no avail.

Dallas?

Rick Carlisle knows that it’s game/set/match if Dirk Nowitzki doesn’t continue to put up big numbers, and Carlisle has always been a conservative coach not prone to making drastic lineup changes. So basically what you’ve seen from the Mavs is what you’ll see in The Finals – at least in Game 1. Dirk outside, Dirk on the block, Dirk to the hoop.

There are reports that James will guard him, and that might happen late in games. But the last thing the Heat want is James in foul trouble early, and that’s possible if the 6-foot-8 James defends the 7-foot Nowitzki. Look for it late if James is not in foul trouble and Nowitzki is going off.

It will be interesting to see if the Mavericks can adjust to the Heat’s defensive pressure. Dallas is coming off a series against Oklahoma City in which the Thunder were at best indifferent defensively, and the Mavs could basically get off whatever shot they needed with the Thunder politely declining to blast through picks.

Miami is a different breed of cat, and the Heat’s youth allows them to apply defensive pressure for the entire game. James never seems to have his hands on his knees, and everyone on the team not named James or Wade usually has plenty of energy late in games because they don’t have to expend much on offense in the early going.

NBA Trends:

DAL are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. NBA Southeast.
DAL are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games overall.
Over is 6-2 in DAL last 8 vs. NBA Southeast.
Over is 8-3 in MIA last 11 overall.
MIA are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 Tue. games.
Road team is 19-7-1 ATS in the last 27 meetings.
Over is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in Miami.

BEST BET: Looking here for an over game as the Heat try to establish themselves as schoolyard bullies and push the ball down the Mavs’ throats. Both teams have had plenty of rest, and fresh legs can result in points on the scoreboard.

For parlay players, throw in Heat minus the points.

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Lawrence Paul is a regular contributor to the Cappers Picks Blog, and is a free-lance gambling expert from Massachusetts.