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Free Pick: Dallas vs. Miami NBA Lines & Handicapping Preview

NBA: Mavericks vs Heat Predictions

NBA betting action sees the Dallas Mavericks taking on the Miami Heat on Friday January 30 at AmericanAirlines Arena in Miami, Florida.  Cappers Picks provides free NBA handicapping tips all season long.

These teams are linked by recent title battles but the Mavs are way ahead of them this season.

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Dallas Mavericks (30-17) vs. Miami Heat (20-25)
Friday January 30
AmericanAirlines Arena – Miami, FL
NBA Betting Lines:  Dallas -8.5
NBA Betting Total:  190
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They should win on the road.


The Mavericks are in the middle of their longest losing streak of the season – 4 straight.

They have slipped from being the top scoring team in the league and that 24th ranked defense is not going to cut when they are not putting up a ton of points.

Case in point their new starting PG Rajon Rondo scored zero points in their most recent loss to Houston.

He has never been a scoring machine but they need him to be some semblance of a threat.

4 total points from that spot on the floor (from others) is not going to cut it.

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Monta Ellis has been trying to pick up the slack but so far to no avail.

He has scored 30+ in two of the last three games but all have been losses. In addition to Rondo one guy who should be contributing more is Chandler Parsons.

Even though the Mavs play at a faster pace he is scoring less than he did last year with Houston. He has picked things up a bit lately but they still need more.


The Heat have been very sporadic this season, following up an impressive win over the Bulls on the road with a home loss to Milwaukee.

This game will present an interesting matchup because the Heat are the second ranked defensive team in the league, so it will kind of be strength against strength.

This Miami team is very different from last year’s but still seems to be pretty public.  They have been a terrible bet at home this season with a 7-14-1 ATS record.

Don’t fall into the trap.

It is hard to find a player who has shown more improvement this season than Hassan Whiteside.

He put up 16/16 in their most recent game and the project from Marshall seems to finally be paying dividends.

Most importantly it means that Chris Bosh does not have to play against other centers. He is a much more effective matchup. both offensively and defensively as a power forward.

NBA Handicapping Trends:

Under is 3-0-1 in Mavericks last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
Mavericks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
Mavericks are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. loss.
Heat are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
Heat are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 4-0 in Heat last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Over is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings in Miami.
Over is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings.
Mavericks are 13-3-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings in Miami.

4* NBA Prediction:  Miami +8.5

It is never a terrible idea backing a home underdog.

NBA Score prediction:  Dallas 99 – Miami 94

The Heat have been able to use their defense and the newfound production of Hassan Whiteside to surprise some teams. Not awesome value but worth a shot.

Check out our Updated NBA Betting Odds.

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About The Wiesguy

The Wiesguy is a newcomer to the handicapping scene. Hailing from Toronto, Canada he is always sweet on the underdogs and you can often find his thoughts, musings and picks at moneydogs.blogspot.com.