Oklahoma City Thunder (1-2) at Memphis Grizzlies (2-1)
That gnashing of teeth you hear comes from the NBA offices in New York, where they are crunching numbers and figuring on lower TV revenue if the low-profile Memphis Grizzlies seal the deal in this series and take out Kevin Durant and the Thunder.
Western Conference
Monday, May 13
FedExForum, Memphis
9:30 p.m. EST
Spread – Grizzlies -4.5 at TopBet
O/U – 184.5
ATS Matchup Stats | Gambling Insight!
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Before Russell Westbrook’s season-ending injury it looked like the Thunder were positioned well to get at least three rounds deep into the playoffs and be close to even money to take out San Antonio and get to The Finals – presumably against the Heat – for the second straight season.
It would have made for good theater.
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But Westbrook’s injury has created an opening the width of a 5-lane superhighway for the Grizzlies and their smothering defense, and tonight they have a chance to take a 3-1 stranglehold on the series and put the Thunder in a very uncomfortable spot when the action returns to Oklahoma City on Wednesday.
To get this series even and regain home-court advantage that the Thunder worked hard for all season, OKC has to simply shoot better tonight. The Thunder made a little more than one of every three shots in their Game 3 87-81 loss, including only 5 of 18 3-pointers.
OKC coach Scott Brooks has been looking for a consistent scoring option since Westbrook was whacked, but in Game 3 Kevin Martin and Serge Ibaka each shot 6 for 17 from the floor.
If they combine for 24 more misses tonight, Durant will have to put 45 or 50 on the board to compensate.[ad-6571516]
Memphis, meanwhile, will be perfectly satisfied to continue to win ugly. The Grizzlies proved their mettle as the best defensive team in the league during the regular season, a statistic that no doubt does little to impress NBA executives but has everything to do with winning basketball games.
With OKC’s offensive options limited, Memphis will no doubt continue to crowd Durant, doubling him when he puts the ball on the floor and trying to run him off the 3-point line. The Grizzlies know full well that this series can be stuffed in their backpacks if Durant doesn’t go crazy.
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Oklahoma City was the best team in the league ATS (49-31-2) in the regular season, but the playoffs often bear little resemblance to what happens from November through March, and against the numbers in the playoffs the Thunder are just 3-6.
Still, the OKC is backed against a wall and getting 4.5, so it’s best to stay away from that.
We like this one to go under, for the third time in four games, as the Grizzlies prevent the Thunder from going full throttle.
