NBA Lock Alert – Melo’s Nuggets Host Ellis’ Warriors
Warriors vs. Nuggets (-14)
(O/U) 233
December 1, 9:00 PM ET
The Golden State Warriors (6-10 SU, 9-7 ATS, 9-7 O/U) may not have the glowing straight up (SU) record or title contending hopes that the Denver Nuggets (12-5 SU, 9-8 ATS, 8-9 O/U) have shown this season, but when it comes to covering the NBA lines, few teams have been as hot solid as the Warriors over the last two weeks.
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Golden State enters tonight’s matchup against Denver looking to improve on their impressive 7-4 ATS mark over their last 10 games and is coming off a convincing, confidence-building win over Indiana on Monday night.
The Nuggets have dropped two straight against the spread and had their four-game SU winning streak snapped in a surprising loss to Minnesota on Sunday.
Golden State
Warriors are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.
Warriors are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
Monta Ellis has gone absolutely berserk for the Warriors since the team traded Stephen Jackson nearly two weeks ago. 
Ellis scored a game-high 45 points and racked up five steals, as the Warriors cakewalked over the Pacers 126-107 on Monday night. Golden State covered the NBA point spread as 2.5-point home favorites as four other Warriors also reached double figures in scoring in the win. The Warriors won for the third time in their last five games.
Denver
Nuggets are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a S.U. loss.
Nuggets are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 home games.
The Nuggets lost to Minnesota 106-100 on Sunday, failing to cover the game’s NBA point spread as a 14.5-point favorite in the process.
Carmelo Anthony led the Nuggets with 32 points, while Kenyon Martin added a double-double with 16 points and 14 rebounds. The Nuggets have won seven of their last 10 games straight up.
Analysis: The Golden State Warriors may have gone an uninspiring 3-8 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Denver, but I like them to cover the NBA point spread tonight for the same reason I took them to cover in many of their most recent games – their ability to score the ball.
Yes, the Denver Nuggets are the superior team in this matchup and have some gifted offensive players of their own, but Golden State can run and gun with any team in the league and I think the 14-point spread in this matchup is a bit too much for the Nuggets to cover.
The Nuggets have gone a solid 13-5 ATS in their last 18 home games, but will be facing a Warriors ballclub that has gone an impressive 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.
With both teams averaging a shade over 109 points per game and the Warriors allowing about 10 points per game more than Denver, I say the Warriors narrowly cover the NBA point spread as road underdogs in this one.
NBA Free Picks: Golden State +14 Points
One reply on “Golden State vs. Denver Free NBA Pick (Dec. 1)”
This game comes down to the Warriors keeping this game close enough to cover the 14 because I do not think they have a chance to actually win this game. The fact that Golden State is averaging 109 points a game should be enough for them to keep it closer than 14.