Memphis Grizzlies Season Preview – NBA Predictions
The Grizzlies have turned around their franchise from also ran to making the playoffs but you have to wonder if this group can really expect to make the next step.
Memphis Grizzlies
Western Conference
2011-12 Record: 41-25
Odds to win title: 30 to 1
Odds to win conference: 15 to 1 from Bovada
Key losses:
O.J. Mayo – His game got stagnant in Memphis where they never really figured out how to maximize his talents…but he can shoot and score
Top Newcomers:
Jerryd Bayless – A combo guard who is still looking for the right situation (4th team I think). Proved he can be a legit scorer when he was given time in Toronto.
Tony Wroten – Loved his game at Washington. Is still raw offensively but is a good athlete and as a lefty can be sometimes hard to handle.
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Can run the point on a second unit if need be too.
Top Players:
Rudy Gay – One of the best small forwards in the league. In addition to being a top performer he is the player they look to to make plays in critical situations.
Marc Gasol – Underrated big man is one of the few effective true centers in the league. He is not overly athletic but contributes regularly.
Zach Randolph – The power forward can be enigmatic but has been a good soldier in Memphis and a reliable double-double guy. His game is not always pretty and he plays on the ground but you can’t knock the results.
The West is loaded and this team is definitely second tier behind Oklahoma City, Los Angeles and San Antonio. They have had some success against the Spurs in the past but it is hard to see them being able to go on a run and knock out more than one of those teams.
With the offseason moves the Grizzlies made it appears they are hoping that improvement and continuity will push them higher up the Western Conference pecking order. They might see getting rid of guard O.J. Mayo as a positive but you can’t argue with the kid’s talent and they may wish they had him around on nights when they don’t get much of anything scoring wisefrom their bench. This is a good but not great team. [ad-6571516]
Strengths:
Nucleus – This team’s core players have been together for a few seasons now and have theoretically mastered how to play together. This should put them ahead of teams early in the season who are integrating new talent and systems in a material way. The fact that they have talent to boot is why this team could be a factor in the West.
Weaknesses:
There is not a lot of proven depth on the roster for Memphis. They are looking to replace Mayo’s production with untested second year player Josh Selby and frequent traveller Jerryd Bayless. Upfront Mareese Speight shows flashes from time to time but there is a reason he doesn’t see regular action when Randolph is available .
Prediction:
Memphis should win between 42-50 games this year. They have youth mostly on their side and high levels of continuity amongst the starting unit. This is a good defensive team in the backcourt but up front Randolph and Gasol are not anything special. Which makes me wonder if they can once agains be among leaders in points allowed like they were last season. Look for this team to qualify for the playoffs relatively easily but probably bow out in the second round in not before.
Something to look for:
The Grizzlies were an ATS monster two seasons ago when they surprised many but were below .500 last year when the expectations were higher. This is a good team that doesn’t score a ton of points so they often tease bettors. Like so many teams in the West they had solid records both ATS and SU against the Eastern records while struggling against the more familiar and better teams in the West. Also, because they are still a generally youthful club they do well on the second game of back to backs – 61% ATS the last three seasons.
