Auto Club 400 Gambling Preview
The NASCAR Sprint Cup series crisscrosses the nation one more time with a return west this week to the Auto Club Speedway in Fontana, California for the running of the Auto Club 400.
NASCAR Sprint Cup- Auto Club 400 Preview and Prediction
Race: Auto Club 400 at Auto Club Speedway
Date: Sunday, March 23, 2014
Time: 3 p.m. (ET)
Broadcast: FOX
Odds By Bovada
Sunday’s race is set to get underway at 3 p.m. and it will be broadcast nationally on FOX.
Rain delays plagued last Sunday’s race, but it was well worth the wait after my 22/1 longshot paid off when Carl Edwards crossed the finish line first under the lights at Bristol Motor Speedway. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. finished second and Aric Almirola ended-up third as longshots dominated the top three in this race.
The following is a look at my top favorite, contender and longshot to win this Sunday’s race based on odds provided by Bovada.
The Favorite (odd of less than 10/1)
Jimmie Johnson finished outside the top 10 for the first time in his first point four races this season after falling all the way to 19th at Bristol.
The No. 48 car is now sixth in the current Sprint Cup standings, but a win this Sunday as a 5/1 favorite would most likely move this team to the top of the list based on the new rules that put a much heavier emphasis on point race victories as opposed to just points alone.
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Johnson has an excellent chance to take the checkered flag at Fontana considering that he has won here five previous times and his average finishing position at this track is 5.7.
The Contender (odds from 10/1 to 19/1)
When you are looking for value in a contender, sometimes it makes sense to go with a tested veteran even though his odds may be a bit longer than some of the other drivers in the group. That is why I am going with Jeff Gordon at 16/1 to win this week’s race.
The long-time Sprint Cup veteran has kept the No. 24 car firmly in the mix in his first four races this season with two top-five finishes and two others in the top 10.
Recent form at Auto Club Speedway does take some value away from these odds with just one top 10 finish in Gordon’s last five trips around this track in a Sprint Cup race, but is his average finishing position here is still a decent 11.8.
The Longshot (odds 20/1 or greater)
Despite last week’s win, picking longshots in NASCAR is a tough way to make a living. Three of them occupying the top three spots in any point race is definitely the exception and not the rule, but I will do my best to make lightning strike twice.
Looking down the list, the name that jumps out for this race is Greg Biffle at 22/1. He is the type of driver that has a knack for staying on the lead lap and while he does not find the winner circle all that often, he is usually good for one or two checkered flags a year.
Last season at Fontana, Biffle drove the No. 16 car to a sixth-place finish for the second year in a row in this race.
Odds from Bovada
JIMMIE JOHNSON 5-1
BRAD KESELOWSKI 8-1
KYLE BUSCH 6-1
MATT KENSETH 7-1
KEVIN HARVICK 8-1
DALE EARNHARDT JR 10-1
KASEY KAHNE 10-1
JOEY LOGANO 12-1
JEFF GORDON 15-1
DENNY HAMLIN 12-1
CARL EDWARDS 15-1
CLINT BOWYER 25-1
RYAN NEWMAN 25-1
KURT BUSCH 25-1
TONY STEWART 25-1
GREG BIFFLE 25-1
BRIAN VICKERS 30-1
MARTIN TRUEX JR 50-1
JAMIE McMURRAY 60-1
KYLE LARSON 60-1
RICKY STENHOUSE JR 75-1
PAUL MENARD 75-1
AUSTIN DILLON 100-1
ARIC ALMIROLA 300-1
MARCOS AMBROSE 300-1
AJ ALLMENDINGER 500-1
CASEY MEARS 500-1
DANICA PATRICK 500-1
JUSTIN ALLGAIER 2000-1
FIELD 200-1
