Aaron’s 499 Gambling Preview
The NASCAR Sprint Cup series starts to heat up this week with a stop at the fabled Talladega Superspeedway for the running of this year’s Aaron’s 499.
Race: Aaron’s 499 at Talladega Superspeedway
Date: Sunday May 4, 2014
Time: 1 p.m. (ET)
Broadcast: FOX
Odds By Bovada
The green flag for the start of this potential ‘instant classic’ is set to wave a little past 1 p.m. and the race will be broadcast nationally on FOX.
Joey Logano is starting to become a household name on the Sprint Cup circuit with his second victory in three races after winning at Richmond this past Saturday night. Jeff Gordon stayed on top of the point standings by taking second and Kyle Busch ended-up third.
The following is a look at my top favorite, contender and longshot to win this Sunday’s race based on odds provided by Bovada.
The Favorite (odd of less than 10/1)
Dale Earnhardt Jr. is the only driver listed in the favorite’s category this week at 9/1 and I love his chances to make good on these lofty odds with a win on Sunday.
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He has been the most consistent driver this season with six top-10 finishes in the first nine Sprint Cup point races and the No. 88 car has already won at a similar track with a season-opening victory in the Daytona 500.
Dale Jr. was a regular fixture in the Winner’s Circle at Talladega in the early 2000’s with his last victory here coming in 2004.
The added value in his odds for this Sunday’s race, along with his current form, is a second-place finish in the fall race at this track in 2013.
The Contender (odds from 10/1 to 19/1)
This category is loaded with quality drivers this week with nine listed at 12/1 to win and another four listed at 18/1 odds. The wide-open nature of this race really expands the field of potential winners, but I am jumping on six-time Sprint Cup winner Jimmie Johnson as my top contender to win this week.
The No. 48 car has struggled with consistency as of late with three finishes outside the top 20 in its last five point races, but the other two were in the top three.
Veteran drivers oftentimes find ways to win races like this and the fact that Johnson won this race in 2011 and finished fifth in last year’s event is good enough for me.
The Longshot (odds 20/1 or greater)
If you were ever going to play a longshot in a Sprint Cup race this Sunday could be the perfect opportunity.
I would normally look for experience at these longer odds, but I am going with one of NASCAR’s young guns with a play on Kyle Larson at 22/1.
This year is his first full-time ride in the Sprint Cup series after racing in four events last year, but the No. 42 car has remained competitive with a second-place finish at Fontana to go along with two top-10 finishes in its last three Sprint Cup races.
Larson started from the Pole last week in Richmond but ended-up 16th.
Odds from Bovada
- DALE EARNHARDT JR 10-1
- JIMMIE JOHNSON 12-1
- KEVIN HARVICK 12-1
- KYLE BUSCH 12-1
- MATT KENSETH 12-1
- BRAD KESELOWSKI 12-1
- JEFF GORDON 12-1
- JOEY LOGANO 12-1
- DENNY HAMLIN 12-1
- TONY STEWART 12-1
- KASEY KAHNE 18-1
- CARL EDWARDS 18-1
- CLINT BOWYER 18-1
- KYLE LARSON 20-1
- KURT BUSCH 20-1
- GREG BIFFLE 20-1
- RYAN NEWMAN 25-1
- JAMIE McMURRAY 25-1
- BRIAN VICKERS 30-1
- MICHAEL WALTRIP 40-1
- PAUL MENARD 40-1
- MARTIN TRUEX JR 50-1
- AUSTIN DILLON 50-1
- RICKY STENHOUSE JR 50-1
- ARIC ALMIROLA 75-1
- MARCOS AMBROSE 75-1
- AJ ALLMENDINGER 75-1
- DAVID RAGAN 75-1
- CASEY MEARS 75-1
- JUSTIN ALLGAIER 75-1
- DANICA PATRICK 75-1
- TREVOR BAYNE 100-1
- DAVID GILLILAND 100-1
- FIELD 30-1
