2013 Aarons 499 Predictions
This week the Sprint Cup series will make its first trip this season to one of the most storied NASCAR tracks in the country for the running of the Aarons 499 at Talladega Superspeedway. Sunday’s race is set to get underway at 1 p.m. and it will be broadcast nationally on FOX.
NASCAR Sprint Cup Aarons 499 Preview and Prediction
Race: Aarons 499, Talladega Superspeedway
Date: Sunday, May 5, 2013
Time: 1 p.m. (ET)
Broadcast: FOX
Odds: Bovada
Kevin Harvick took his first checkered flag of the season in a point race last Saturday night with a win at Richmond. Clint Bowyer ended-up in second place and Joey Logano finished third.
The following is a closer look at our favorite, contender, and longshot picks for this Sunday’s race with odds provided by Top Bet.
The Favorite (odd of less than 10/1)
Given how wide open the field is for this Sunday’s race we had to bend the rules a bit for this week’s favorite considering that the best odds for any driver to win are 10/1. Both Kyle Busch and Matt Kenseth opened at these odds, but Kenseth gets the nod.
He has already posted victories at Las Vegas and Kansas and despite being docked 50 points in the Sprint Cup standings for an engine violation after his last win, the No. 20 car came very close to winning last week after leading the race for 140 laps.
What really tips the scales in Kenseth’s favor is his recent performance at Talladega with a third-place finish in last year’s race to complement a victory in the second race here in 2012.
The Contender (odds from 10/1 to 19/1)
There are a pile of contenders listed at 12/1 to win on Sunday, but we are going with crowd favorite Dale Earnhardt Jr. in this category. [ad-8757089]
The No. 88 car started the season like a house on fire with five top-10 finishes in the first five races that included a second-place finish in the Daytona 500 and another second at Fontana.
Dale Jr. has cooled-off over the past few weeks but remains tied for third-place in the Sprint Cup standings with 297 points. There is also some solid value in Junior’s odds given his success over the years at restrictor plate tracks such as Talladega.
While he has not won here since reeling-off four straight victories from 2001 to 2003, he did finish fourth in this race in 2011 and ninth in the second race here last season.
The Longshot (odds 20/1 or greater)
While the meat of the order for Sunday is crammed in somewhere between 10/1 and 15/1, the one driver that does stand out at 30/1 is Joey Logano. This guy may be a thorn in a number of people’s sides, but his aggressive style of racing has resulted in three top five finishes so far.
The No. 22 car’s best performance this season was at Fontana when it led the field for 41 laps before finishing third and it remained a factor in last week’s race to the very end.
What makes Logano a real reach to win this race is an average finishing position of 18.1 in eight previous Sprint Cup races at this track, but current form may be able to compensate for that.
Odds from Bovada
Matt Kenseth 10/1
Kyle Busch 10/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr 12/1
Jimmie Johnson 12/1
Kevin Harvick 12/1
Tony Stewart 12/1
Clint Bowyer 12/1
Jeff Gordon 12/1
Brad Keselowski 12/1
Kasey Kahne 12/1
Carl Edwards 15/1
Greg Biffle 15/1
Jamie McMurray 20/1
Martin Truex Jr 25/1
Joey Logano 30/1
Kurt Busch 30/1
Ryan Newman 35/1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr 35/1
Danica Patrick 35/1
Juan Montoya 35/1
Jeff Burton 40/1
Paul Menard 40/1
Michael Waltrip 40/1
Marcos Ambrose 50/1
Aric Almirola 50/1
Trevor Bayne 75/1
Elliott Sadler 75/1
Regan Smith 75/1
Dave Blaney 100/1
David Ragan 100/1
Bobby Labonte 100/1
Casey Mears 100/1
David Gilliland 100/1
Field (Any Other Driver) 15/1
