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NASCAR Sprint Cup AAA 400 Preview and Prediction

Betting ON AAA 400 Gambling Odds

The Sprint Cup series returns to Dover International Speedway’s ‘Monster Mile’ this week for the running of the AAA 400 in the third race of this season’s Chase to the title.  

NASCAR Sprint Cup AAA 400
Race: AAA 400 at Dover International Speedway
Date: Sunday, Sept 30, 2012
Time: 1 p.m. (ET)
Broadcast: ESPN

Sunday’s race is scheduled to start at 1 p.m. (ET) and it will be broadcast nationally ESPN.

Denny Hamlin’s victory last Sunday at New Hampshire puts him squarely in the title race, while Jimmie Johnson’s second-place finish vaulted him into the lead in the point standings. Jeff Gordon ended-up third.

The following is a closer look at our favorite, contender, and longshot for this Sunday’s race along with their current odds to win as provided by WagerWeb.

The Favorite (odds of less than 10/1)

The past few months have been a rough stretch for Matt Kenseth with just one top-five finish in his last 10 point races, but he has been opened as the second-favorite at +800 to get back to victory lane this Sunday. Most of the value in the No.17 car’s odds is based on its past performance at this track. Kenseth has posted an amazing nine top-five finishes in his last 10 races at the ‘Monster Mile’ including a victory in the early race in 2011, a fifth-place finish in last year’s race, and a third-place finish in the first race here this season. [ad-8757089]

The Contender (odds of 10/1 to 19/1)

Brad Keselowski took the checkered flag in the first race of this season’s Chase at Chicago and followed that up with a sixth-place finish last week to stay within one point of Johnson in the standings. His best finish at Dover in just five career starts is 12th in the first race here this season so it is easy to see why he has been opened at +1000 to add a fifth victory to his 2012 resume. It is this current form that adds all the value to the No. 2 car’s odds as opposed to what it has done at this track in the past.

The Longshot (odds of 20/1 or higher)

It is hard to find any value in a longshot when it comes to the Chase as these races are almost always dominated by the top contenders for the season title. If you have to take a flyer on a non-Chase driver, your only choice with WagerWeb is Mark Martin at +2000. The longtime Sprint Cup veteran has just three top-five finishes this year, but there is actually some value in these odds considering that the No.55 car did finish second in this race in 2009 and 2011.



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About Dave Schwab

David Schwab is a regular contributor to the Cappers Picks Blog. While not cheering for his beloved Philadelphia Eagles David can be found working on his blog at www.eaglesinc.com. David wants to hear from you so please comment below.