2010 Southern 500 Predictions – Betting Preview + Picks + Odds
Preview: More than any other track in NASCAR, Darlington is the one that is personified – The Lady in Black, as she’s known – a temperamental old gal who reaches out her wall and slaps racecars at will, branding them with her legendary Darlington Stripe.
Race: Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway
Date: Saturday, May 8, 2010
Time: 7:44 PM EST (scheduled Green Flag)
TV: 7:30 PM EST on FOX
NASCAR only races here once a year now and there are several unpredictable variables playing into the race conditions, including practicing during the daytime and racing at nighttime, using the new spoiler and double file restarts here for the first time, and dealing with a new tire combination from Goodyear.
Perhaps that is why so many teams are already in backup cars thanks to practice mishaps Friday, including Dale Earnhardt Jr., Kyle Busch, Clint Bowyer, Greg Biffle, Scott Speed, Marcos Ambrose, Casey Mears and Joe Nemechek (Mears and Nemecheck missed the qualifying cut).
Jamie McMurray and Jeff Gordon start on the front row with Brian Vickers, David Reutimann, and Mark Martin rounding out the top five.
Safe Bets:
1. Jeff Gordon (9/2): Gordon is the winningest active driver at Darlington, having won seven races in 29 starts. Gordon missed the pole by just seven-thousandths of a second and was eighth-fastest in Happy Hour. Gordon said, “This is a compromising race track. If you’re good in one and two, you’re going to be too tight in three and four, or if you’re free in one and two, you might be good in three and four.
It’s a track that you’re never going to be just perfect.”
. 2. Denny Hamlin (6/1): Hamlin has one of the hot shoes in NASCAR right now, winning two of the last five races despite recent knee surgery. He ran second and fifth in practice Friday, qualified eighth, and won the Nationwide race Friday night. Despite not posting a win in four starts here, Hamlin finished second in 2007 and has never finished lower than 13th.
Dark Horse:
1. Ryan Newman (22/1): Newman is among the top five drivers in total points at Darlington over the last five races (some with Penske Racing), ran fourth in final practice, and qualified sixth. Though he hasn’t posted a win here, he has finished in the top-5 five times in 11 starts, including finishing fourth last year after leading 48 laps.
Newman finished second at Darlington in 2002 and third in 2004. 
Summary: Jimmie Johnson has the best average finish at Darlington among active drivers with three or more starts and Denny Hamlin is second on that list. Jeff Gordon has the highest driver rating here based on races from 2005 on, with Johnson a close second.
Mark Martin won this race last year and qualified fifth for this race, but Kyle Busch, the ’08 winner, qualified 39th and has been struggling this weekend.
Showtime Southern 500
From Darlington Raceway
Time: 7:45pm ET
Odds to win 2010 Southern 500 Nascar Race
Jeff Gordon 6/1
Kyle Busch 6/1
Jimmie Johnson 6/1
Denny Hamlin 8/1
Mark Martin 12/1
Jeff Burton 12/1
Kevin Harvick 12/1
Kurt Busch 12/1
Tony Stewart 15/1
Clint Bowyer 18/1
Carl Edwards 20/1
Matt Kenseth 20/1
Greg Biffle 20/1
Kasey Kahne 25/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 25/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr 25/1
Joey Logano 25/1
Brian Vickers 30/1
David Reutimann 40/1
Martin Truex Jr 40/1
Ryan Newman 40/1
Brad Keselowski 50/1
Jamie McMurray 50/1
Bobby Labonte 100/1
Regan Smith 100/1
Scott Speed 100/1
Paul Menard 100/1
Elliott Sadler 100/1
AJ Allmendinger 100/1
Marcos Ambrose 100/1
David Ragan 100/1
Travis Kvapil 100/1
Sam Hornish Jr 100/1
Field (Any Other Driver) 100/1
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Becca Gladden is a freelance writer and race handicapper specializing in NASCAR.
