Nascar Ford 400 Gambling Picks/Preview

2010 Ford 400 Predictions – Betting Preview + Picks + Odds

Preview:  Ford is the title sponsor of Sunday’s race and Homestead-Miami has certainly been a Ford-friendly track in recent years.  Six of the last eight Homestead races have been won by Ford drivers, including three straight by Greg Biffle (’04-’06) and one a piece by Carl Edwards, Matt Kenseth, and Kurt Busch when he was with Roush Racing. 

Race: Ford 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway
Date: Sunday, November 21, 2010
Time: 1:15 PM EST (scheduled Green Flag)
TV: 1:00 PM EST on ESPN

Edwards, last week’s winner at Phoenix, has the highest starting spot for Sunday’s race at P2, while non-Chaser Kasey Kahne starts on the pole.  Of the three remaining title contenders, Jimmie Johnson starts sixth, Kevin Harvick, 28th, and Denny Hamlin, 38th; Hamlin won this race last year from that same starting position.

Safe Bets:

1. Denny Hamlin (5/1):  As noted above, Hamlin won this race last year and is trying to win his first NASCAR Sprint Cup championship this year.  Along with his ’09 win, Hamlin has finished third at Homestead two times in five starts.

2. Carl Edwards (7/1):  Edwards is the winningest driver at Homestead and will be racing with confidence following his win in Phoenix last week.  He has the best average finish in Miami, including five straight top-10 runs here, and the highest starting spot among Chase drivers for Sunday’s race.

Dark Horse:

1. AJ Allmendinger (50/1):  He’s only made two Homestead starts, but Allmendinger has finishes here of 11th and 10th.  He qualified fifth for Sunday’s race at this Ford-friendly venue.

Summary:  Kyle Busch had the fastest ten-lap average speed in practice Friday. 

Keep an eye on Happy Hour practice Saturday, particularly to see whether Hamlin and Harvick are able to move up the speed chart.  The only way Hamlin is guaranteed to clinch Sunday is if he wins the race or finishes second and leads the most laps. 

If Hamlin or Harvick wins the title, it would be the first Cup championship for either of them. 

If Johnson wins, it would be an unprecedented fifth consecutive title.

Odds to Win the Ford 400
Sun, Nov, 21st (1:15 PM EST) at Miami Homestead Raceway

Johnson, Jimmie 7-2
Edwards, Carl 7-2
Hamlin, Denny 5-1
Harvick, Kevin 9-1
Busch, Kyle 12-1
McMurray, Jamie 15-1
Gordon, Jeff 15-1
Biffle, Greg 15-1
Kenseth, Matt 15-1
Stewart, Tony 22-1
Busch, Kurt 25-1
Logano, Joey 30-1
Reutimann, David 30-1
Burton, Jeff 30-1
Kahne, Kasey 30-1
Allmendinger, A.J. 35-1
Bowyer, Clint 40-1
Montoya, Juan 40-1
Ragan, David 50-1
Newman, Ryan 50-1
Martin, Mark 50-1
Earnhardt Jr., Dale 60-1
Menard, Paul 100-1
Sadler, Elliott 200-1
Keselowski, Brad 200-1
Ambrose, Marcos 300-1
Almirola, Aric 300-1
Smith, Regan 500-1
Hornish, Jr., Sam 500-1
Labonte, Bobby 1000-1
Speed, Scott 1000-1
Kvapil, Travis 1000-1
Against the Field (any other driver) 200-1

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Becca Gladden is a freelance writer and race handicapper specializing in NASCAR.