2009 AAA 400 Predictions – Betting Preview + Picks + Odds
Race: The AAA 400 – Dover International Speedway
Date: Sunday, September 27, 2009
Time: 2:16 PM EST (scheduled green flag)
TV: 2:00 PM EST on ABC
Preview: This is the second race of NASCAR’s ten-race Chase for the Championship, and two issues have surfaced heading into the weekend: weather and tires. The weather forecast is calling for a 40% chance of rain Saturday and morning showers on Sunday. Even if skies clear in time for the race, the track might be green when the green flag drops. As to tires, Goodyear brought a new one to Dover in terms of both construction and compound based on tire testing done here in August. Several drivers have expressed concerns including Greg Biffle, who said, “This tire is really proposing a lot of trouble for us, and we’re just super-loose and having troubles getting a hold of the race track – I think everybody is, and it’s going to be the guy that can drive it for [400] miles. It’s hard right now. They should’ve left the tire alone. There was nothing wrong with the old one.”
Safe Bets:
1. Jimmie Johnson (+325): Johnson is tied with Jeff Gordon and Mark Martin with most wins at Dover with four a piece, but he did so in just 15 starts – Gordon has 33, and Martin, 46. Johnson won here in May and is starting on the pole Sunday. He was also one of a handful of drivers involved in the tire test in August and seems be handling the loose Goodyear tire better than many others.
2. Greg Biffle (+800): Biffle won this race last year, has two Dover wins overall, and is starting fourth on Sunday. Although he doesn’t like the loose tire, Greg is known for his ability to handle a loose car. Greg ranks fourth in the average finish category and leads all drivers in total points accumulated at Dover over the last two, five, and even ten races.
Dark Horse:
1. Matt Kenseth (+4000): Kenseth won at Dover in June of 2006 and finished second in this race last year to teammate Greg Biffle. Matt looked strong in practice and appears to be happier with his car this weekend than he’s been in several weeks.
Summary: Although the Roush-Fenway teams have been struggling a bit this year, they typically run well at Dover and will likely have a good showing Sunday. It will be interesting to see whether the Chase drivers who participated in the August tire test have any kind of advantage this weekend.
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Becca Gladden is a freelance writer and race handicapper specializing in NASCAR.
