MLB Weekend Top 10
Sometimes we analysts make baseball betting way too complicated. We go on about obscure statistics, all sorts of day/night and home/road splits, and letdown spots. We search so hard for value that we often miss what’s right in front of us.
Take a look at this season’s MLB runline trends: Home underdogs are 144-95, good for just over 60%. Who needs to look farther than that to make some coin on baseball?
All statistics were at press time; for the latest odds visit sports.bodog.com.
Top 10 paying teams
1. Los Angeles Dodgers (40-20 SU, +18.39 units)
2. Texas Rangers (33-25 SU, +10.32 units)
3. Milwaukee Brewers (33-25 SU, +8.68 units)
4. Philadelphia Phillies (33-23 SU, +6.53 units)
5. Cincinnati Reds (30-27 SU, +5.79 units)
6. Toronto Blue Jays (34-27 SU, +5.25 units)
7. Detroit Tigers (32-26 SU, +4.55 units)
8. Boston Red Sox (34-24 SU, +4.07 units)
9. Los Angeles Angels (29-27 SU, +3.37 units)
10. San Francisco Giants (30-27 SU, +2.81 units)
Top 10 paying pitchers
1. Matt Palmer, LA Angels (6-1 team record, +7.75 units) 2.
2. Josh Johnson, Florida (10-3, +6.81 units) 3.
3. Eric Stults, LA Dodgers (7-2, +5.85 units) 4.
4. Chad Billingsley, LA Dodgers (10-3, +5.56 units) 5.
5. Scott Feldman, Texas (7-2, +5.42 units) 6.
6. Jason Marquis, Colorado (8-4, +5.35 units) 7.
7. Josh Outman, Oakland (7-3, +5.29 units) 8.
8. Matt Cain, San Francisco (9-3, +5.19 units) 9.
9. Vicente Padilla, Texas (7-3, +5.03 units) 10.
10. Tim Wakefield, Boston (8-3, +4.98 units)
This weekend’s top 10 storylines
1. Phillies closer Brad Lidge (sprained right knee) goes on 15-day disabled list.
2. Mets shortstop Jose Reyes at least a few weeks away from returning with torn tendon in right hamstring.
3. Carlos Quentin (plantar fasciitis) delays return from DL; could be out until All-Star break for White Sox.
4. Rangers outfielder Josh Hamilton has surgery to repair partially torn abdominal muscle; out 4-6 weeks.
5. Rays trio of Pat Burrell (neck strain), Jason Bartlett (sprained left ankle) and Scott Kazmir (strained right quadriceps) to begin rehab next week.
6. Nationals select pitcher Stephen Strasburg with first overall pick in entry draft.
7. Phillies outfielder Raul Ibanez rips blogger for performance enhancing drug speculation.
8. Cubs activate second baseman Aaron Miles (right shoulder strain) from 15-day DL.
9. Blue Jays sign outfielder David Dellucci to contract.
10. Jesse Litsch to undergo Tommy John surgery; could miss up to 18 months for Blue Jays.
This weekend’s top 10 games to bet on
1. Sunday: New York Mets at New York Yankees (1:05 PM ET)
Mets ace Johan Santana (8-3, 2.39 ERA) could actually see some value against the Yankees, who send A.J. Burnett (4-3, 4.89 ERA) to the hill for the finale of this weekend’s Subway Series. It’s rare the Bronx Bombers are underdogs at home, so it’s likely to be the lowest price on Santana all season. 2.
2. Saturday: Boston Red Sox at Philadelphia Phillies (7:05 PM ET)
Red Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon is dealing with food poisoning, but it doesn’t matter because Boston’s bullpen has been dominant this season. The BoSox lead the majors with a 2.66 bullpen ERA, and they’ll need to be at their best against the Phillies, who rank third in runs per game (5.48). 3.
3. Friday: Los Angeles Dodgers at Texas Rangers (8:05 PM ET)
Lost in the shuffle of the Rangers’ No. 2 ranking on the MLB moneylist is their impressive record over/under. As much as Texas is an offensive juggernaut, public bettors tend to overestimate its production. That’s led to the Rangers’ 22-33-3 O/U mark so far. 4.
4. Saturday: Chicago White Sox at Milwaukee Brewers (4:05 PM ET)
Don’t fade the White Sox because Jose Contreras (1-5, 6.45 ERA) is taking the mound against the Brewers. There’s going to be a good number on the board for the righthander with Chicago playing on the road, and Contreras is coming off his best start of the season. Contreras allowed only one hit over eight scoreless innings in the ChiSox’s (-114) 6-1 win over Detroit on Monday. 5.
5. Sunday: Minnesota Twins at Chicago Cubs (2:20 PM ET)
The under is the sharp play for Sunday’s Twins-Cubs game. Minnesota is 3-7 O/U over its last 10 games, and is a bankable 7-18-2 O/U away from the friendly hitting confines of the Metrodome. Chicago is doing its part for the argument, having played under in seven of its last 10 contests. 6.
6. Sunday: St. Louis Cardinals at Cleveland Indians (8:05 PM ET, ESPN)
Chris Carpenter (4-0, 1.23 ERA) battles Cliff Lee (3-6, 3.17 ERA) on Sunday Night Baseball. Lee allowed four runs over six innings in the Indians’ (-208) 8-4 win over Kansas City on Tuesday night, and that was the most runs he’s surrendered since giving up seven in his first start of the season. 7.
7. Friday: Oakland Athletics at San Francisco Giants (10:15 PM ET)
The Bay Area teams go head-to-head for three games this weekend, and the Giants have the benefit of sending Tim Lincecum (5-1, 2.96 ERA) to the rubber in the opener. Lincecum’s been stellar over his past four starts since some hiccups in May, so it wouldn’t be wise to bet against him with the Athletics’ anemic offense crossing the harbor. 8.
8. Saturday: San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Angels (9 PM ET)
Looks like the Padres have regressed back to the mean after overachieving in the month of May. San Diego has dropped seven of its last 10 games to fall out of favor with moneyline bettors, while those playing the over have cashed in (7-2-1 O/U). 9.
9. Friday: Atlanta Braves at Baltimore Orioles (7:05 PM ET)
Blue-chip prospect Tommy Hanson (0-0, 9.00 ERA) makes the second start of his young career on Friday night, and Braves backers are hoping it’s different than the first outing. Hanson gave up six earned runs over six innings in Atlanta’s 8-7 victory as –142 chalk over Milwaukee last Sunday. 10.
10. Friday: Florida Marlins at Toronto Blue Jays (7:07 PM ET)
Roy Halladay (10-1, 2.52 ERA) goes for his league leading 11th win of the season against the Marlins, who haven’t combined to play over the number in over a week. Florida is hard-pressed to do so against Halladay and the Blue Jays, who are well in the black for bettors despite missing three-fifths of their starting rotation.
