Blue Jays (44-47) vs Orioles (51-42)
Toronto dropped the final game of their series against Cleveland as a rookie making his first start (Danny Salazar) out-pitched the reigning National League Cy Young winner (R.A. Dickey).
Friday July 12
Oriole Park at Camden Yards – Baltimore, MD
7:05PM
Probable Starters:
TOR: Mark Buehrle (L)
BAL: Chris Tillman (R)
Moneyline: Baltimore -130, Toronto +120
Over/Under: 9.5
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Toronto
The Jays offense struggled all series long putting up just 7 runs over the three games.
That is definitely not going to get it done against good teams. Now the Jays are off to Baltimore to close out the first half. They swept the Orioles to conclude their 11 game winning streak, after which they have been struggling again big time.
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If they can win all three not only will they close the gap on Baltimore but they will be at .500, an important psychological hurdle.
Mark Buehrle was probably the least heralded player to come to the Jays from the Marlins over the winter. It seems to have taken the veteran lefthander a little longer than expected to get comfortable in his new home but he is now starting to contribute and has been pitching well for the last month.
His last start was arguably his best as he shut out the Minnesota Twins over 7 innings while giving up 6 hits and walking none – it was the second time in his last 5 starts that he has pitched 7 shutout innings.
Buehrle has missed Baltimore this season but has a 7-5 career record against the O’s with an ERA under 3.
Baltimore
The Orioles have not been playing great lately but they took the final two of their series against Texas, giving up just 2 runs, so maybe their starting pitching woes are overrated. What is not overrated has been the performance of 1B Chris Davis who the Rangers gave up on.
It seems unlikely that he will challenge 3B Miguel Cabrera in average but he still leads in homers by a few and is in striking distance in RBI. What has been very impressive is how he has feasted on teams in the American League East, with almost half his homers in divisional games.
He is not just taking advantage of weak competition he is slugging out there against the big boys. [dfads params=’groups=10&limit=1&return_javascript=0′]
The peripheral numbers may not wow you but it is hard to argue with the results from Chris Tillman this season.
He is 10-3 coming into Friday night and before a loss in his last start the Orioles had won 8 straight with the big righty on the hill – Tillman got the decision in 7 of those victories, including a win over Toronto to start the streak.
Tillman is 2-0 versus the Blue Jays this season and this is an important game to kick off this series. It doesn’t have to be pretty but the Orioles need this win as they try and secure their position before the All-Star Break.
With these two hurlers on the mound I think the offenses will open up in this series opener. The Blue Jays bullpen has been fantastic and I think they will make the difference in this one after Buehrle exits.
If Toronto has any sense of urgency about their season they will get off the mat tonight. Based on what we have seen so far that may be a big if but I believe.
O/U: Over
Score Prediction: Toronto 7 – Baltimore 6
