Rays (60-42) vs Red Sox (61-42)
Through the first three games the Tampa Rays have gained on the Red Sox even further and now enter Thursday`s series finale with a chance to take first place the American League East.
Thursday July 25
Fenway Park – Boston, MA
7:10PM
Probable Starters:
TB: Jeremy Hellickson (R)
BOS: John Lackey (R)
Moneyline: Boston -135, Tampa +125
Over Under: 9
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Tampa
Wednesday`s win was typical with starter David Price delivering a brilliant complete game and the offense chipping in 5 runs. That is the big change between this team and the Rays teams of the past. The pitching is still fantastic but the offense is way better than you think led by 3B Evan Longoria and Co.
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To close out the series and perhaps push them into first the Rays are turning to Jeremy Hellickson. I never know what to make of Hellickson, and the stat geeks don`t either, but if you measure a guy by putting his team in a spot to win this guy is very good.
He personally has a 9-3 record and the Rays have won 9 of his last 10 starts.
He doesn`t dominate lineups, like Price or Matt Moore, but he wins and the strikeout numbers are up this year, which isn`t too bad even though the ERA has followed.
Boston
Boston may be excited about locking up 2B Dustin Pedroia long term but they better focus on the game on Thursday or the red hot Rays will dump them into second place. Tampa is a buzzsaw right now but it would be a mental victory to gain a split on their own home turf and keep the upstart down. [dfads params=’groups=10&limit=1&return_javascript=0′]
Plus after this one they are headed for Baltimore to complete a 10 game tour of the A.L East contenders (they started with the Yankees). If they are not careful they could go from first to third in a matter of days, which might crush a team that is also getting bad news from the doctors office and needs reinforcements.
Luckily for Boston they have their best pitcher on the mound in this crucial game.
Yes it is hard to believe but due to circumstance and performance John Lackey is the Sox best right now, or else they would definitely not be favoured against Tampa. Prior to the All-Star Break Lackey had gone 6 starts in a row with 7+ innings and 2ER or less. In his first start after the break the Yankees tagged him for 4 runs in a loss though so perhaps he is getting back to what we expected.
His numbers against Tampa are nothing to get excited about.
The Rays are not going to win every game but until they cool or have a serious disadvantage on the mound I won`t be betting against them. I am not a big fan of either of these starters but I think you have to go with Hellickson. Or better yet take the over as both are known more for getting the job done than dominance.
O/U: Over
Score Prediction: Tampa 6 – Boston 4
