Baseball Handicapping Stats Analysis
Stats in MLB are used by the handicapper, odds maker, sports writer, sports talk radio, television, MLB gamblers, fantasy players and even the casual fan that reads the box scores in his or her local newspaper. The goal of this report is to use information that is readily available to everyone but not commonly used together in hopes that we can find an edge over the enemy, the odds maker.
The importance of stats in Major League Baseball is common knowledge but for the handicapper we have seen significant changes in the last several years. We have seen the value of the starting pitcher fall as they throw for fewer innings per start than in years past with middle relief and closers as much a part of the handicapping process if not more. Even with that in mind we wanted to see if runners left on base, hits per game and of course winning and losing in certain situations could help predict future results.
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Our goal was to find systems using the aforementioned parameters that had shown profitability for an extended period of time. We queried the database and this is what we found.
Play ON any MLB Underdog coming off a win in which they had at least ten hits and left five or more runners on base. Since 2004 this system has produced a record of 1459-1836 SU for +8085 Units. If our Play ON team is an underdog of +140 or more their record is 489-735 SU for +6350 Units since 2004.
Play ON any MLB Underdog off a 1-run loss in which they had ten or more hits and left five or more runners on base. These underdogs are 317-387 SU for +2985 Units since 2004.
Play ON any MLB Underdog coming off a 2-run or more win in which they had ten or more hits and left at least five runners on base. This system is 1142-1449 SU for +5100 Units since 2004.
Play ON any MLB Home Underdog off a loss and now faces an opponent who is coming in off a five or more run win in which they had ten or more hits. Playing on this Underdog produced a record of 236-254 SU for +4360 Units since 2004. This Underdog has been a money-maker when playing them on the run line with a record of 122-89 SU for +1615 Units since 2004.
We have also included four very strong team specific angles that you should keep an eye on for the next time they become active.
The Twins are 0-21 since 2004 as a road 130+ dog after a loss in which they drew 1 or fewer walks.
Pittsburgh is 0-33 as a 165+ dog when they are off a 4+ run loss in which their starter lasted at least an inning.
The Astros are 26-0 as a 140+ home favorite when they are off a win by fewer than 8 runs in which they had fewer team left on base than their opponent.
The Red Sox are 30-0 since 2004 at home as a favorite of more than 170 when their opponent is seeking immediate revenge for a multiple run loss in which they allowed at least five walks.
You should never make a decision to play based solely on any particular system or angle but they can be used as part of your handicapping arsenal. Remember to always play smart and within your means. Take care and as always good luck.
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Robbie Gainous of Cajun-Sports has been providing serious sports investors with consistent winning selections since 1989.
