Mets vs. Marlins, Yankees vs. Royals Saturday Picks

MLB Saturday Picks – New York Parlay

MLB Baseball Betting Matchup: 

New York Mets (2-1) at Florida Marlins (3-0) 
Dolphin Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL (natural turf) — 6:10 PM ET 
(Records good through Thursday’s games)

Right-handers go at it, as New York’s Livan Hernandez, the former Marlin favorite, goes up against Ricky Nolasco, who had a breakout season for Florida in 2008.

Here are some of the MLB Baseball head-to-head betting trends as they relate to this matchup:
(Numbers good through Thursday’s games)

* The last five meetings have gone UNDER the total
* NY has won five of the last nine games as the road team

Look who’s back in town! Its Livan Hernandez, who won the MVP Award in both the National League Championship Series AND the World Series back in 1997 when he was a first-year player with the Marlins. Here he is twelve years later, having led the National League three times in innings pitched, participating in two All-Star Games and winning 146 games, which is 14th among active pitchers. Last year he once again pitched a lot of innings, split between Minnesota and Colorado, and put up his highest ERA ever (6.05). Hernandez also had a 1,67 WHIP ratio and allowed opposing hitters to bat .342 against him. Sure, the Mets picked him up as someone who could post some innings either in a starting or relief role, but he’d have to demonstrate he can get hitters out again, especially a Florida lineup that looks sharper this season.

Ricky Nolasco came into this season as the best pitcher the Marlins had, after last year’s fantastic 1.10 WHIP and .239 batting average against, which produced a 15-8 record as he helped this team stay in the thick of the division and wild card races for much of the season. He did get touched up in his opening start, allowing five runs in six innings, but the good news is that he didn’t walk anybody and did fan six Washington Nationals. He’s got some upside, while after Livan’s ovation we don’t know what to expect. As long as the Mets are playing, you’ll get some “public value.”

Our PLAY:  FLORIDA (Nolasco) ** 
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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MLB Baseball Betting Matchup:

New York Yankees (1-2) at Kansas City Royals (2-1)
Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City (natural turf) — 7:10 PM ET 
(Records good through Thursday’s games)

Left-handers will be opposing each other as New York’s C.C. Sabathia, the big-money free agent acquisition and former Cy Young winner, goes up against journeyman Horacio Ramirez of the Royals.

Here are some of the MLB Baseball head-to-head betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* NY has won four of the last six meetings
* Eight of the last 11 meetings have gone UNDER the total
* NY has won seven of the last ten meetings as the road team
* Seven of the last eight meetings in Kansas City have gone UNDER the total

Horacio Ramirez, a guy who was drafted back in 1997, broke into the majors with a 12-4 record for Atlanta in 2003. He’s been struggling to regain that form since, although he did post a 2.59 ERA in 15 relief appearances for the Royals last season. Because the season opener was postponed, Ramirez will get the chance to start in this Saturday game instead of Sunday, when he was originally scheduled.  What really gives Ramirez his opportunity here is that the Royals desperately want to have a left-hander in their otherwise all-righty rotation, so it doesn’t really matter that he was shelled a bit in the spring, giving up nine runs in two innings in one start against the Angels and six runs in six innings against the Rangers in another. He allowed seven homers in the spring, not to mention 44 hits in 25 innings of work. His 9.00 ERA would normally not have gotten him anything more than a demotion. Now here’s the interesting part – Ramirez has allowed only four earned runs in 20 innings over his last three starts against the Yankees. Of course, you have to go back to 2007 for the latest on that list.

It took a while for CC Sabathia to get on track last season, as he allowed 27 earned runs in his first 18 innings. Hey, the guy has a 4.65 career ERA in April, which is higher than any other month for him. So maybe we shouldn’t necessarily ignore Sabathia’s initial outing, in which he gave up six runs and eight hits in 4-1/3 innings against Baltimore. If this big money hurler busted, at least early in the season, would it be a huge shock? We simply can’t back Ramirez here, but Sabathia may blow up again, and he’s going to be unattractively priced. The total looks better, even though we’re flying in the face of some nasty “under” trends.

Our PLAY: 13 TOTAL RUNS (Over) ** 
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)