MLB Handicapping
The MLB regular season has come to a close which means the start of the always exciting baseball postseason.
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With every pitch meaning so much in the month of October, players are feeling the pressure, meaning they are going to show us their true colors more clearly than ever. That makes the need to find trends to discover value all the more important.
Here is a look at some stats and trends worth keeping an eye on when breaking down the board this week, and in the weeks ahead.
Royals SP James Shields has a 2.31 ERA in the month of September.
In fact, Shields has kept his ERA under three in each of the last three months. When the team brought him in for highly touted outfield prospect Wil Myers, it seemed like the team made a big mistake, mortgaging the future to supplement a roster that wasn’t good enough to win now.
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Flash forward two years and the boys in the front office are surely patting themselves on the back for that one, as Shields has been a major player in getting the team into the postseason.
He’s established himself as one of the better aces in baseball, and more importantly at this time of year, he’s established himself as one of the best big-game pitchers in baseball.
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Over the last three months, Shields has compiled a 2.65 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. Over the last two months, during which the team has ridden a strong wave of momentum into the postseason, the team has gone 8-3 when Shields takes the bump.
The Orioles are 11-1 in SP Chris Tillman’s last 12 starts.
In those starts, Tillman has posted a 2.36 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP. The offense has certainly been what’s carried the Orioles in recent years, but Tillman has established himself as a quality pitcher on a team that hasn’t gotten much out of its starting rotation in recent years.
Tillman will open up the postseason for the Orioles, and he has the kind of stuff right now that he can go pitch-for-pitch with any of the top pitchers in the game. Over his last 20 starts, he hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs a single time. Backed by one of the top offenses in baseball, that’s an enticing proposition for baseball bettors.
The Pirates put together a 17-4 run in September.
No team enters the postseason hotter than the Pittsburgh Pirates. The team has been red-hot on the back of strong pitching and some timely hitting. Mr. Everything Josh Harrison has been the catalyst for this late season surge, creating offense from the top spot in the order.
Andrew McCutchen has also had a solid season despite being overshadowed by Clayton Kershaw in the MVP race.
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