Monday Night Baseball Pick: New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds
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After the Phillies utterly embarrassed them Sunday night, the Mets hope to bounce back in style against rookie Mike Leake tonight.
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Monday Night Baseball Prediction – Tonight, 7:10 p.m. ET
New York: 14-11 SU
Cincinnati: 12-13 SU
MLB odds: Mets +117, Reds -137
Total: 9.5
On The Mound Tonight: Oliver Perez (0-2, 4.35) vs Mike Leake (2-0, 3.25)
The Arizona State product and 2009 first-rounder has been way ahead of schedule for Cincinnati, posting three quality starts in his first four tries.
It hasn’t been all roses for Leake, however. The 3.25 ERA is nice but the 15 walks in 27.2 innings and 1.41 WHIP suggest luck has been on his side. You can bet he’ll issue a bushel of free passes with David Wright and Jason Bay, two of the league’s most patient hitters, in the lineup for the Mets tonight.
The Mets counter with the volatile but talented Oliver Perez. He’s doing his usual thing, striking out roughly a batter per inning but walking anything with a pulse.
His 11-start track record at Great American Ballpark is also consistent with the Ollie P we know: 70 Ks, 36 walks and 10 homers allowed in 57.1 innings, plus a 9-5 record. 
He’ll probably mow down a power-swinging lefty like Jay Bruce tonight but could struggle against Brandon Phillips and Scott Rolen, not to mention Joey Votto, who hits pretty much everyone.
Tough to predict how a rookie will do but the Mets are still struggling offensively, with no one hitting better than .274.
I’d take a chance on Leake since the Mets haven’t seen him before.
Gambling Trends:
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Mets’s last 5 games
NY Mets are 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Cincinnati
NY Mets are 3-9 SU in its last 12 games on the road
NY Mets are 8-2 SU in its last 10 games
Cincinnati is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati’s last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati’s last 6 games at home
Cincinnati is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing NY Mets
Free Mets vs. Reds Monday Night MLB Pick: Reds -137
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