Thursday Baseball Pick: Giants vs Braves
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San Francisco Giants @ Atlanta Braves
Tonight, 7:10 p.m. ET
Tim Lincecum (11-4, 3.10) vs Jair Jurrjens (3-4, 4.62)
MLB odds: Giants -110, Braves -110
It’s weird to see the Giants not favored in any Tim Lincecum start, even on the road, but that’s the way things have gone for Tiny Tim this season. He’s still having a good year but not so much by his lofty standards. His .240 opponents’ average this season is a big spike from his .221 career number or .206 last season. Lincecum has simply been more hittable.
That said, the Braves may be just what Lincecum needs. He’s 6-1 in seven career starts against them with 54 strikeouts in 46.2 innings. Lincecum is also unbeaten in his last five outings this year.
Based on his overall numbers, Jair Jurrjens hasn’t done much to prove his 2009 season wasn’t a fluke. But a closer look shows that he’s coming around. 
After missing most of the first half and going 1-3 with a 5.40 ERA in seven starts, he’s 2-1 with a 3.62 ERA in four outings since the All-Star break. Jurrjens is also dominant at home – 3-0 with a 1.71 ERA this season.
Now, it’s easier to see why this matchup is a coin flip. Still, I like Lincecum tonight. The Braves’ bats haven’t been too impressive of late whereas the Giants are swinging better – especially Buster Posey.
Gambling Trends:
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco’s last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Atlanta is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta’s last 6 games when playing at home against San Francisco
Atlanta is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games when playing at home against San Francisco
Atlanta is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games when playing San Francisco
San Francisco is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
San Francisco is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games when playing Atlanta
Pick: Giants -110
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