2008 MLB Postseason Betting Preview
Baseball is the gift that keeps on giving. No other sport provides as many opportunities for winning as America’s national pastime; imagine a 162-game NFL regular season, only with softer betting lines.
The playoffs are even sweeter for sharp handicappers. Just by following the simple “take the underdog” method, they’ve earned 4.17 units on a record of 12-12. You won’t find a system that’s any easier to manage than that. At this time of year, all the teams are very good, and it’s easy to get overly dramatic about their differences in talent level. The betting market floods with fans betting blindly on their heroes. Their money is yours for the taking.
There is an element of luck, however, to these games of skill. Daisuke Matsuzaka, for example, has been a lucky pitcher this year if you consider his quality of performance as it compares to his results. Boston is 25-6 (including playoffs) this year when Matsuzaka pitches. If you had bet $100 on each of those 31 games, you’d be up $1,594. No other pitcher in the major leagues has earned more money for his supporters.
Matsuzaka rakes in all that cash despite not quite being the best pitcher in the league. He’s seventh in the ERA rankings at 2.90, which is still pretty impressive, but ERA is one of those statistics handicappers look at sideways. To paraphrase Bill James, ERA says a lot about a team’s defense and not necessarily the pitcher in question. Boston’s defense has been outstanding this year with only 85 errors, tied for fifth fewest in the majors. If you use the adjusted Fielding Independent Pitching statistic (xFIP), Matsuzaka is No. 33 in the American League at 4.82.
> Bet on MLB odds during the postseason with Bodog’s online sportsbook.
It just so happens that Matsuzaka is Boston’s starting pitcher for today’s ALCS Game 5 against the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays are +140 underdogs at Fenway Park with a total of nine runs. This game has the potential to make history; Tampa Bay is up 3-1 on the defending champions and would reach the first World Series in franchise history with a win today. This is a team that finished last in the AL East in nine out of its first 10 seasons.
The Rays are tweaking their starting rotation a bit and sending Scott Kazmir to the hill in Game 5, pushing James Shields to a possible Game 6 in Tampa. Kazmir has a 3.49 ERA and a 4.23 xFIP; the Rays are 21-8 behind Kazmir for a profit of 10.05 units. 
He and Matsuzaka are both excellent pitchers; the biggest difference between the two is how the betting market perceives them at this very moment.
The same goes for the vaunted Boston offense. On the season, the Red Sox outscored Tampa Bay 845-774, a significant margin. But that gap virtually disappears if you look only at the month of September, when each club scored 137 runs – the Rays had 27 games to Boston’s 26. Jason Bay’s a great hitter (.897 OPS in 49 games with the Sox), but he’s no Manny Ramirez (1.232 OPS in 53 games with the Dodgers).
The Red Sox are also trying to get by without Mike Lowell (.798 OPS), their starting third baseman. His replacement in the batting order, 1B Mark Kotsay, had a .732 OPS during the regular season and is just 7-for-27 in the playoffs with no walks and little power. These offensive downgrades are in stark contrast to the Rays, who have gotten healthy at just the right time. Evan Longoria (1.174 OPS, five HR) and Carl Crawford (.929 OPS, five steals) are back in the lineup and making a meal of the Green Monster.
Longoria is the poster child for the Rays organization. He’s a rookie, and as such isn’t getting the respect a player of his calibre deserves – yet. The old “youth vs. experience” debate has very little relevance in baseball, but casual fans and baseball commentators are fixated on the concept of “knowing how to win” in the postseason. In baseball, older is not better. Just look at 36-year-old Boston catcher Jason Varitek (3-for-24 in the playoffs) for proof.
The Tampa Bay Rays have value written all over them today. The question is: Do you believe in Matsuzaka’s magic? Bet on Matsuzaka’s next game in the Sportsbook.
