Pirates (56-38) vs Reds (54-42)
Pittsburgh came out flat out of the All-Star break, continuing their spate of recent average play. Starter Francisco Liriano had his worst outing in a while giving up 5 ER in less than 5 innings.
Saturday July 20
Great American Ballpark – Cincinnati, OH
4:05PM
Probable Starters:
PIT: A.J. Burnett (R)
CIN: Mat Latos (R)
Moneyline: Cincinnati -145, Pittsburgh +135
O/U: 8
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Pittsburgh
The bullpen shut the door thereafter but the offense mustered just three runs in the 5-3 loss. Given his swing and miss nature I am not sure we can call Home Run Derby jinx on 3B Pedro Alvarez, who was 0 for 4. 2B Neil Walker is still out and they need him and fellow All-Star OF Andrew McCutcheon to lead the lineup.
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So much has been made of Francisco Liriano’s performance for the Pirates that A.J. Burnett has been overshadowed this year.
He was the Pirates best pitcher last year and is on pace for another very successful season. In fact, if things continue the way they are going we are looking at career lows in ERA and WHIP.
The odds part is that the record hasn’t followed at just 4-6 for one of the winningest teams in baseball. Only twice all season long has he received more than 5 runs of support. Once was a game against the Reds that the Pirates won back in April – his only start against Cincy this season. [dfads params=’groups=10&limit=1&return_javascript=0′]
Cincinnati
Cincinnati got the second half off to the start they needed by taking the first game against Pittsburgh.
They didn’t gain any ground against St. Louis but they are now just three back of the Pirates, a team they want to catch to get a home game in the playoffs. It was a big 5th inning and another good start from Mike Leake that got them the victory. The bullpen was stingy giving up just 4 hits over the last three+ innings.
The way that both of these pens are dealing the damage is probably going to have to happen against the starters.
There should be a lot of hitters heading back to the bench with their head down with Burnett and Reds starter Mat Latos dealing on Saturday.
Latos had a very good first half but closed it out with his worst outing of the season against Atlanta – 6ER over just 4 innings. More bad news for Reds fans is that Latos has made 3 starts against Pittsburgh this season and the Reds have lost all three. None were disastrous and in two he didn’t factor in the decision.
His lifetime numbers against the Pirates are actually pretty good with a 2.57 ERA over 9 starts
Pittsburgh needs to get out of their mini funk but on the road against a pitcher like Latos it is going to be real tough. Burnett will pitch fairly well but will be outdone by Latos in another Red victory. The value is all on the Pittsburgh side on this one but I think the smarter play is on Cincinnati.
Maybe parlay this one with another on the board for a better payoff.
O/U Pick: Over
Score Prediction: Cincinnati 6 – Pittsburgh 4
