Phillies vs Marlins Preview – MLB Odds
On the season the Phillies have an Over/Under record of 24-16 and a run-line W/L record of 21-22 and the Marlins have an Over/Under record of 29-15 and a run-line W/L record of 25-22.
Philadelphia Phillies (20-23) vs. Miami Marlins (24-23)
Venue/ Stadium: Marlins Park, Miami, Florida
Time/Date: 12:40 PM EST Thursday, May 22, 2014
MLB Odds From: Bovada
Moneyline: Phillies -110 / Marlins -110
Over/Under: 7.5 runs
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This season the Marlins are 18-6 at home and the Phillies are 12-11 on the road.
In yesterday’s game between these 2 teams the Marlins beat the Phillies 14-5.
The Marlins have been terrible this season on the road, but luckily they are at home in this game where they have the best home record in the Majors. They crushed the Phillies yesterday and can take this series with a win tonight. Miami is 4-6 in their last 10 games and they are in 3rd place in the AL East 2 games back of the Atlanta Braves.
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The Phillies are 5-5 in their last 10 games and are 4 games back of the Braves.
Yesterday’s win by the Marlins was the first this season against the Phillies after dropping the first 4.
Cole Hamels (1-2, 4.40 ERA) is on the hill today for the Phillies and in his last start have only gave up 1 earned run in 7 innings in a win over the Cincinnati Reds.
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Henderson Alvarez (2-3 3.62 ERA) goes for the Marlins and in his last outing he gave up 4 earned runs in 6 innings in a no decision against the San Francisco Giants.
Hamels began this season on the DL and he is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA in his last 2 starts after going 0-2 with a 7.02 ERA in his first 3.
In Hamels last 7 starts against the Marlins he is 3-2 with a 1.65 ERA and is 2-1 with a 1.59 ERA in his last 5 starts in Miami.
The Phillies are only 1-6 in Hamels’ last 7 starts and 1-4 in their last 5 starts when they are the favorite.
Alvarez has struggled on the road this season, but at home he is 2-1 with a 2.33 ERA. He is 0-1 with a 3.46 ERA in 2 starts against the Phillies.
While the Marlins are 4-1 in Alvarez’s last 5 home starts they are only 1-4 in his last 5 starts facing a team with a losing record.
The reason the Phillies have a losing record is that they only rank 25th in the Majors in runs and 24th in team ERA.
Betting Trends
The Phillies are 5-1 in their last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter, 5-1 in their last 6 vs. National League East, and they have an Over record of 5-1 in their last 6 road games.
The Marlins are 21-6 in their last 27 home games, 3-8 in their last 11 overall, and they have an Over record of 7-2-1 in their last 10 home games.
In the last 11 games between these 2 teams in Miami the total has gone Under 9 times.
Jason’s Pick:
I think Hamels will have another good start and the Phillies will win this game and take the series.
