Friday MLB Baseball Picks: Reds vs Cubs
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MLB Betting – Reds vs Cubs Preview & Pick
Date: Friday, May 6, 2011
Venue: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
Broadcast: FSOH, WGN
Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs Betting Lines from BetOnline.com
Money Line: Reds +114, Cubs -124
Over/Under: OFF
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Cincinnati Reds (15-15 through May 4)
Edinson Volquez (2-1, 5.67)
Edinson Volquez’s struggles this season epitomize what’s gone wrong with the Cincinnati Reds. They continue to smash the baseball, ranking second in the majors in runs per game, but they’re 25th in ERA. Volquez was expected to anchor the Reds’ rotation but it hasn’t been the case.
Walks have been his greatest enemy; he’s issued a ridiculous 24 in 33.1 innings this season, not to mention served up seven homers. Volquez is 2-0 with a 0.96 ERA against the Cubs in his career, but with 14 walks in 18.2 innings, suggesting he’s been pretty lucky.
Chicago Cubs (14-16 through May 4)
Matt Garza (1-3, 3.96)
The Chicago Cubs’ rotation has been an absolute rollercoaster and Matt Garza has been driving it. He allowed 13 runs over his first three starts but has been lights out of late, allowing just four runs over his last three outings. He struck out 10 Arizona Diamondbacks over eight innings on April 30.
Even though opponents are hitting .275 off Garza, he hasn’t allowed a single homer this season; that’s quite the anomaly for a guy known for his homer-prone ways and moving to a hitter-friendly park.
MLB Trends:
CIN are 0-8 in their last 8 Fri. games.
CIN are 1-7 in their last 8 games following a win.
CIN are 19-7 in Volquezs last 26 road starts.
CHC are 3-8 in their last 11 games following a win.
CHC are 8-18 in their last 26 Fri. games.
Under is 9-4-1 in CHC last 14 Fri. games.
The pick:
The Reds’ bats have been fearsome all season long, especially Joey Votto’s, but the matchup doesn’t seem right for them on Thursday afternoon. They’ve never faced Garza before and that favors him. Also, he’s hot and doing a great job keeping the ball in the park of late. Secondly, bettors simply can’t trust the Reds when Volquez takes the hill these days. He’s walking so many hitters right now that he could very well hand over a victory.
Reds vs Cubs prediction: Cubs 6, Reds 3
Money Line: Cubs -124
Over/Under: OFF
